Futures prices showed declines at yesterday's close. The main RU contract settled at 17,365 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan from the previous day. The main NR contract closed at 14,675 yuan per ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The main BR contract finished at 14,460 yuan per ton, down 150 yuan.
In the spot market, prices also softened. Yunnan-produced whole milk rubber in Shanghai traded at 17,400 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan. Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao bonded zone was priced at 16,950 yuan per ton, also down 50 yuan. Thai STR20 in Qingdao was quoted at $2,260 per ton, a $10 decline. Indonesian STR20 in Qingdao was at $2,150 per ton, down $10. The ex-factory price for PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 dropped 400 yuan to 14,300 yuan per ton. The market price for Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 fell 300 yuan to 14,350 yuan per ton.
Recent data indicates a shift in trade dynamics. QinRex figures show Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 861,000 tons in the first four months of 2026, a 15% year-on-year decrease. Exports to China specifically fell 29% to 318,000 tons. Conversely, China's customs data reveals a 5.8% increase in rubber tire exports for the same period, reaching 3.21 million tons, though the export value saw a slight 0.1% dip. Imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) into China in April 2026 totaled 621,000 tons, a 9.3% decrease from April 2025.
The ANRPC's March 2026 report forecasts a 2.2% global increase in natural rubber production for the year, reaching 15.324 million tons. Global consumption is projected to rise 1.4% to 15.602 million tons. Domestically, China's heavy truck market saw robust sales of approximately 125,000 units in April 2026, a 43% increase year-on-year.
Market analysis for natural rubber shows a mixed picture. The RU basis was 35 yuan/ton, while the NR basis stood at 758 yuan/ton. Raw material prices in Thailand held firm, with smoked sheet at 86.86 baht/kg. The operating rate for all-steel tires was 68.06%, and for semi-steel tires, 75.12%. Social inventories of natural橡胶 stood at 709,232 tons, with Qingdao port stocks at 1,316,381 tons.
For butadiene rubber (BR), the basis was -160 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price for butadiene from Sinopec was 12,000 yuan/ton. The operating rate for high-cis BR was 65.28%. Trader inventories of BR increased to 7,130 tons, while producer stocks rose to 26,100 tons.
The strategy outlook is neutral for RU and NR. With normal rainfall in major production regions and high year-on-year raw material prices, supply release is expected to be favorable later, strengthening supply recovery expectations. Downstream tire orders show slight weakness, suggesting a potential dip in operating rates this week. A slight weakening in supply and demand, coupled with a loosening of cost support, points to weaker price performance. However, monitoring is required for potential impacts on natural rubber产量 from El Niño weather patterns and any benefits to tire exports to the Middle East from US-Iran negotiations.
A cautiously bearish stance is maintained for BR. With no new maintenance shutdowns at upstream facilities this week and BR production profits hovering near breakeven, further supply increases may be limited, suggesting stability. Downstream tire orders remain slightly weak, indicating operating rates may continue to soften. The overall supply-demand dynamic is weak. As US-Iran negotiations gradually ease and the expectation for butadiene supply recovery remains unchanged, cost support for BR may gradually weaken. Domestic upstream maintenance in June and downstream demand still provide some support, making a sharp short-term drop in domestic butadiene prices unlikely. The timing of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be a key focus later.
Key risks include developments in the Iran conflict, weather changes in major production regions, upstream facility dynamics, and fluctuations in downstream demand.
Comments