Market Overview
The world is in complete chaos right now, so stock markets naturally are not faring well either. It is not just our market that is struggling; South Korea also plunged miserably today. Relatively speaking, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks held up reasonably well, both forming V-shaped rebounds, with Hong Kong stocks edging up 0.3%.
Although the US and Iran are no longer in direct confrontation, Saudi Arabia has stirred up a hornet's nest. It decided to support the Yemeni government forces against the Houthis, thinking that with defense agreements signed with Pakistan and Turkey it would be secure, and at worst the US would back it up. But all these calculations proved wrong. Ultimately, this is a civil war that no outsider can easily intervene in, and the US has even less desire to be dragged into the Houthi conflict again. Now Riyadh Airport in Saudi Arabia has been bombed, with its closure extended to Saturday, causing massive losses. On the other side, Russia-US relations have eased, giving Russia more confidence to intensify attacks on Ukraine. Global shipping is in complete disarray. The proportion of Middle East crude oil transport costs to total costs has surged from the normal 1%-3% to over 25%-30%. Global tanker capacity is extremely tight, and single-vessel charter rates have risen to astronomical levels that "exceed the cost of launching a space rocket." On Monday, the main contract EC2611 of the container shipping index (European route) futures closed up 1.36%, with far-month contracts gaining 1%-3%. COSCO Ship Energy (01138) and TS Lines (02510) rose over 4%, while SITC (01308) and OOIL (00316) gained over 3%. Oil and gas names PetroChina (00857) and Kunlun Energy (00135) both rose 3%.
Today's V-shaped rebound was driven by broad-based ETFs. E Fund ChiNext ETF saw half-day turnover exceed 5.7 billion yuan (versus less than 4.8 billion yuan for the full day yesterday); China AMC SSE STAR 50 ETF saw half-day turnover exceed 5 billion yuan (versus less than 6.2 billion yuan for the full day yesterday); Southern CSI A500 ETF saw half-day turnover of 3.176 billion yuan, approaching yesterday's full-day turnover; Southern CSI 1000 ETF saw half-day turnover exceed 2.8 billion yuan, already surpassing yesterday's full-day 2.668 billion yuan.
Similar to last Friday's situation, the main focus was still financials. Some tech sub-sectors rebounded, mainly driven by earnings. Last night, two major optical communication concept stocks, Lianxun Instruments (688808.SH) and Yuanjie Technology (688498.SH), both announced high earnings growth. Lianxun Instruments expects net profit for the first three quarters of 2026 to increase by 1,866.00% to 2,072.95% year-on-year. Yuanjie Technology expects third-quarter 2026 attributable net profit to grow 578.85% to 659.7% year-on-year. This drove Cambridge Technology (06166) up over 2%; Haiguang Xinzheng (01191) showcased its self-developed silicon photonics 1.6T optical modules and 6.4T NPO at the 27th China International Optoelectronic Expo, with order guidance booked through 2027, and 1.6T optical module shipments to overseas leading AI computing customers in the second half, rising over 5%.
But caution is warranted. Today the KOSPI fell over 7% intraday, and the Korea Exchange briefly triggered the SIDECAR mechanism, suspending KOSPI program selling. Samsung Electronics dropped over 7% and SK Hynix fell over 10%; the reason is ChangXin Memory's new breakthrough, planning to launch a new server memory product before the end of 2026 with higher storage density, plus Broadcom CEO's harsh "casino theory" remark. The tech hardware sector feels like it has not yet fully cleared out.
AI software is holding up better. On October 12, Kingdee International (00268) disclosed its business development for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 and the third quarter, with impressive results. In the first three quarters of this year, subscription service annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached approximately 4.604 billion yuan, up about 19.3% year-on-year; AI-native product signed contract value reached 1.002 billion yuan, driven by increased customer demand for AI-native products such as Lingee. Third-quarter net new ARR grew about 46.9% year-on-year. In terms of customer structure, Kingdee secured a batch of industry leader orders in Q3, including CRRC, Changan Automobile, China Everbright Group, Huazhu Group, and Sunshine Zhiwei, covering high-end equipment manufacturing, automotive, finance, hotel and tourism, and new energy operations. Kingdee's three major AI+SaaS products—AI Xinghan, AI Xingkong, and AI Xingchen—achieved net dollar retention (NDR) rates of 101%, 97%, and 95% respectively, maintaining high renewal rates. Existing customers showed strong product stickiness and upsell willingness after adopting AI suites, with shares rising over 5%.
On October 12, the 2026 Paris Motor Show kicked off, attracting about 20 Chinese auto brands including BYD and Chery, with the number of participating Chinese brands doubling from 2024. Chinese and European automakers are expected to unveil as many as 60 new models at the show. Geely Automobile (00175) Group's three major brands—Geely, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr—appeared together as a group for the first time. Although the EU plans to restrict Chinese hybrid vehicle imports, this is not expected to stop Chinese automakers from continuing to expand their European business. BYD's Hungarian car factory is advancing production preparations, and Spain is also a potential destination for its future European expansion. Chery Automobile (09973) has already begun vehicle assembly operations in Barcelona, Spain. Geely is also advancing plans to use Ford's factory in Spain for vehicle production. Geely (00175) rose nearly 3%.
The 16th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition will be held in Zhuhai from December 7 to 13, 2026, with over 1,100 exhibitors and approximately 10% of exhibits making their "debut" or "first show." CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering (00317) secured new shipbuilding orders for 8 types and 55 vessels in the first half of this year, with orders booked through 2030. The shipbuilding industry's prosperity continues to rise, with shares up over 3%.
Vietnam's Decree 384/2026/NĐ-CP will take effect on January 1, 2027. Its core purpose is to crack down on "simple assembly masquerading as Vietnamese manufacturing." To be labeled "Made in Vietnam," products must either have a changed tariff code or meet local value-added content of ≥30%. This benefits companies that have already established localized supply chains and component factories in Vietnam: they face lower compliance difficulty, can stably obtain Vietnamese origin labels after the new rules take effect, and gain prominent compliance advantages. Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (00551): a footwear leader that has built factories in Vietnam for years, with mature local supply chains for shoe uppers and accessories. Operations have clearly improved from August to September, with shares up nearly 7%. Shenzhou International (02313): a textile and garment leader with highly localized fabric and spinning operations at its Vietnam factories, facing low compliance pressure, up nearly 4%.
The large consumer sector was relatively resilient. Macau gaming stocks saw a bullish research report from a foreign brokerage, with Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928) rising over 3%. Yum China (09987) repurchased shares in both Hong Kong and the US, having bought back 8,707,585 shares, representing a portion of authorized repurchase shares, up nearly 3%.
Particularly notable was Xipuni (02583), whose interim profit rose 75%. On September 10, it launched the world's first pure gold smart ring, achieving commercial implementation of the "pure gold + smart" product model. Its subsidiary Shenzhen Jinling Artificial Intelligence Co. launched the Jinling Jewelry Store AI retail agent, providing AI-empowered smart retail solutions. Shenzhen Shuibei's gold jewelry industry is accelerating AI transformation, and the company is betting on the "precious metals + sensors + large models" smart wearable track, launching a retail-exclusive AI agent that can recover 30% to 50% of hidden lost sales. Meanwhile, the lock-up period for controlling shareholders and pre-IPO shareholders expires on September 29, involving approximately 87.51% of issued shares. With the lock-up expiration completed, negative factors are exhausted, and speculative funds have driven shares up over 17%.
XD Inc. (02400): TapTap's value is undervalued, and AI creation democratization clearly benefits the platform. The company launched the AI creation platform TapTap Maker in January, and as of now over 6,000 games have been released, with Maker games showing higher user retention and playtime than the platform average. Since 2026, monthly game license approvals have repeatedly hit new highs, and 2027 is expected to see a dense wave of new product launches driving TapTap advertising revenue recovery, including high-investment products from top publishers like Tencent and NetEase, with near-term highlights being miHoYo's "Starry Valley" in winter 2026 and NetEase's "Infinity" in January 2027. According to the company's earnings call, future tax rates face upward pressure, but AI investment is expected to decline significantly in the second half, and TapTap is expected to see profit improvement, with shares up nearly 4%.
Sector Focus
According to a Soochow Securities gas industry research report: European and American prices rose week-on-week, while Asian spot and Chinese LNG ex-factory and delivered prices increased. As of October 9, 2026, US HH/European TTF/East Asian JKM/Chinese LNG ex-factory/Chinese LNG delivered prices changed week-on-week by +2.6%/+9.9%/+0.9%/+1.9%/+8% to 0.7/6.5/6.2/4.3/6.3 yuan per cubic meter; European gas prices fluctuated at high levels, up 9.9% week-on-week. From October 1-7, 2026, European natural gas supply fell 18.4% week-on-week to 58,382 GWh; domestic LNG ex-factory prices changed +1.9% week-on-week. From January to August 2026, China's natural gas imports fell 4.5% year-on-year to 110 billion cubic meters. On the price side, in July 2026, the average import price of domestic liquid natural gas was 4,816 yuan/ton, up 9.6% month-on-month and up 27.2% year-on-year; the average import price of domestic gaseous natural gas was 2,435 yuan/ton, up 0.3% month-on-month and down 4.8% year-on-year; the overall average natural gas import price was 3,671 yuan/ton, up 6.4% month-on-month and up 15.1% year-on-year. If the Strait of Hormuz were blockaded, the impact on the three major natural gas indices would rank as follows: JKM (Asia) > TTF (Europe) > HH (US). Overall, there would be direct impacts on JKM and TTF, affecting 13% of Asia's supply and 3% of Europe's supply. There would be an indirect impact on HH. Key Hong Kong stock names: Kunlun Energy (00135), ENN Energy (02688), China Resources Gas (01193).
Stock Spotlight
Haier Smart Home (06690): Officially announced Sun Yingsha as global brand ambassador, with high growth in domestic and overseas orders. On October 13, Haier officially announced Sun Yingsha as its global brand ambassador. The two sides will launch a new journey in smart living under the theme "Love Shasha, AI at Home." The company continues large-scale A-share repurchases, with cumulative spending of 2.29 billion yuan. In the first half of 2026, revenue was 152.115 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year; attributable net profit was 10.316 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year; Q2 revenue was 78.428 billion yuan, up 1.36% year-on-year; attributable net profit was 5.665 billion yuan, up 21.78% quarter-on-quarter. Commentary: As a leading figure in women's table tennis, Sun Yingsha has consistently high popularity and is expected to provide some boost to sales. Haier is a domestic benchmark for high-end white goods, with Casarte holding over 40% market share in refrigerators priced above 10,000 yuan and dominating the high-end washing machine segment. The company's domestic orders are at full production during peak season, with high-end orders prioritized. Casarte terminal shipments grew by double digits, with bundle products accounting for 75%, up 26.5 percentage points year-on-year. Haier's mid-range Seeker and Malang high-end bundle series saw retail sales up 44% year-on-year in 2026, with high-end products lifting overall gross margins and hedging against industry price wars. Haier ranks first globally in smart home sales. Global smart home registered users exceed 130 million, APP monthly active users exceed 13 million, and overseas smart users exceed 20 million. The Three-Winged Bird scenario brand has over 10 million daily active users, integrating home furnishing and appliances, with average order value and gross margins far exceeding standalone appliance sales; bundle order gross margins are 8-12 percentage points higher than single products, becoming a core driver of profit enhancement. Overseas emerging markets are growing rapidly, with factories in Southeast Asia, India, Egypt, and the Middle East and Africa at full production. In 2026, overseas annual capacity is expected to increase by 2-2.5 million units net. Brazil has established a full-category high-end smart appliance layout, opening incremental space in Latin America. L4-level autonomous smart appliances have been launched, with AI Eye 2.0 unmanned household appliances hitting the market in batches. Smart washing and drying and kitchen robot products saw terminal retail sales up 500% year-on-year in 2026, with AI hardware becoming a second growth curve. High-end Casarte orders above 10,000 yuan are full, with production scheduling accounting for over 45%; washing machines are also running at high capacity, with bundle orders continuing to grow. Air conditioning is the core of peak season, with full domestic orders and all factories at full production. Overseas orders are regionally differentiated, with local factories taking on incremental orders. The Egypt refrigerator Phase II and India Pune base are at full capacity, and in Q4 2026 Egypt will add 300,000 units of refrigerator capacity, locking in Middle East and Africa autumn-winter stocking orders in advance. The company's factories in Southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East will gradually come into operation in 2026-2027, further increasing the proportion of overseas self-production, circumventing global trade barriers, with overseas revenue share expected to exceed 52%, and emerging markets becoming a second growth engine. The company continues large-scale share repurchases, with repurchased shares intended for subsequent equity incentive plans. The dividend payout ratio increased to 55% in 2025 (48% in 2024), with a target of raising it to 60% over the next three years, reflecting confidence in the company's future development prospects and recognition of its intrinsic value.
Comments