今晚，这纪要全球关注，重要细节或披露！

华尔街见闻2022-04-06

美联储面对着近40年以来的超级通胀，或将采取更为强硬的措施。今晚即将公布的美联储FOMC会议纪要除了加息信息外，缩表（QT）细节也将披露。分析预计，本次缩表速度要比上次2017年的步伐要快，并且会议纪要还可能包括到期美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的每月减持上限。01、最早可能从5月开始缩表昨日，未来的美联储二号人物布雷纳德强调了，美联储将“迅速”缩减资产负债表，最早从5月份开始。此外，缩表...

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Iris俊
2022-04-07
Iris俊
閱
北纬1度线
2022-04-07
北纬1度线
NB
hello369
2022-04-07
hello369
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hobart
2022-04-07
hobart
強
号虎
2022-04-06
号虎
有機會嗎🤔
华华为
2022-04-06
华华为
閱

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Guha预计，分别为500亿美元和300亿美元；德意志银行则预计分别为600亿美元和450亿美元。对于国库券，美联储则不会设定赎回上限，而是允许其在到期时滚动。彭博经济学家指出，预计会议纪要中的讨论将表明，政策制定者即将敲定资产负债表决选计划。会议记录将包含多种缩减情景，从较慢到较快不等。考虑到资产负债表变动可能产生的不确定性，大多数美联储官员可能偏向于一条渐进的被动缩减路径。三年之后，美联储资产负债水平将接近疫情前的水平。因此，每月缩减上限在800亿美元到1000亿美元之间。03、美联储是否会在5月加息50个基点？虽然资产负债表细节将是会议纪要的重点，但市场也将仔细审视上一次会议中有关加息的讨论，以了解美联储是否会在5月份加息50个基点。Grant Thornton首席经济学家Diane Swonk指出，缩减目标是让选择“更像是一种背景衡量”。美联储更愿意把加息作为收紧货币政策的主要工具。如果有必要，美联储将为资产负债表的调整敞开大门，但现在重点仍在加息上。目前，掉期市场预计，美联储将开始一次性加息超过25个基点，就像它在3月份会议上所做的那样，5月份会议加息50个基点的可能性约为86%。总体而言，市场预期美联储将在今年未来六次会议上进一步加息约222个基点，高于周一预测的213个基点。04、海外债券抛售加剧布雷纳德的加速缩表言论，加剧了海外债市的恐慌。周三，美债延续跌势，10年期国债收益率上升6个基点，报2.614%，超过2019年4月份峰值2.6121%。周二，该国债收益率飙升约16个基点，创2020年3月疫情爆发以来的最大涨幅。澳大利亚10年期国债收益率周二攀升13个基点，一度至2.978%，创2015年以来的最高水平。欧洲各国主权债券的收益率昨日也有所上升。周三，新西兰10年期国债收益率飙升10个基点，至3.35%。日本国债收益率也小幅走高，不过在日本央行上周出手捍卫10年期国债收益率上限0.25%的目标后，日本国债收益率的走势比全球市场更为温和。道明证券驻新加坡的亚太利率策略师Prashant 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