Zhito Finance APP has learned that CICC has released a research report stating that external disturbances and funding pressures are overlapping, and there are many short-term "headwind" factors. Recently, some factors suppressing market risk appetite have further strengthened. Specifically: 1) U.S. September inflation exceeded expectations, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have risen. 2) Asia-Pacific markets, especially South Korea's index, have once again fallen sharply, suppressing A-share risk appetite. 3) As the global AI technology company earnings season approaches, investors' wait-and-see sentiment has risen again. Looking ahead, positive signals are still needed, and there is no need to be pessimistic at the current position. In the short term, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue, high energy prices increase inflation stickiness, and U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to fall quickly; the AI industry chain is in a period of verifying performance and investment returns, and the market is more sensitive to negative information; weak trading and insufficient incremental funds also constrain market recovery. In the medium term, valuation adjustments and earnings recovery are still expected to provide support for the market. CICC's main views are as follows: Yesterday, the A-share market adjusted significantly, and the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new low for the year. Yesterday, the A-share market opened lower and fluctuated downward, with losses narrowing in the afternoon, but the Shanghai Composite Index still fell 1.6% for the full day, once falling below 3700 points during the session and hitting a new low for the year. The large-cap blue-chip style SSE 50 and CSI 300 fell 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively, the growth-style ChiNext Index and STAR 50 fell 2.9% and 1.5%, the small- and mid-cap CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 both fell about 3.3%, and the CSI Dividend Index also fell 2.4%. Market turnover was about 1.6 trillion yuan, higher than the previous day, but still at a relatively low level since the end of June this year. At the industry level, except for food and beverage and non-bank financials, which rose slightly, all other industries declined, with communications, defense and military, and machinery equipment among the biggest decliners.
External disturbances and funding pressures are overlapping, and there are many short-term "headwind" factors. Recently, some factors suppressing market risk appetite have further strengthened. Specifically: 1) U.S. September inflation exceeded expectations, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have risen. The U.S. September CPI and core CPI released the previous night both rose more than market expectations year-on-year and month-on-month. In addition to high oil prices, price pressures outside energy, such as core goods and rent, also strengthened, prompting the market to once again raise expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Affected by this, U.S. stocks and gold fell sharply overnight, and the dollar strengthened. 2) Asia-Pacific markets, especially South Korea's index, have once again fallen sharply, suppressing A-share risk appetite. Influenced by multiple factors including U.S. rate hike expectations, the previous night's U.S. stock performance, and industry events, Asia-Pacific markets adjusted sharply yesterday. The Nikkei 225 fell 4.9%, and South Korea's KOSPI plunged 7.5%, returning to near its late-July low. By comparison, Chinese assets showed some relative resilience, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index falling 1%. 3) As the global AI technology company earnings season approaches, investors' wait-and-see sentiment has risen again. As major technology companies enter a dense earnings disclosure period, investors' attention to AI revenue growth, investment returns, and financing sustainability has increased. According to reports, Anthropic's third-quarter revenue still maintained rapid growth, but the quarter-on-quarter growth rate slowed compared with the second quarter, and annualized revenue was also lower than previous market expectations. High overseas interest rates and investment returns still awaiting verification have also increased market concerns about rising financing costs and financing difficulties for AI companies. If financing conditions tighten further, it may constrain capital expenditures for some companies and transmit to upstream computing power and hardware demand. Cautious expectations have further suppressed the performance of A-share technology companies.
Looking ahead, positive signals are still needed, and there is no need to be pessimistic at the current position. In the short term, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue, high energy prices increase inflation stickiness, and U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to fall quickly; the AI industry chain is in a period of verifying performance and investment returns, and the market is more sensitive to negative information; weak trading and insufficient incremental funds also constrain market recovery. At the current point, continue to watch for possible marginal changes, such as the geopolitical situation, the possibility of improvement in the domestic funding environment, and the release of third-quarter results, among others. In the medium term, valuation adjustments and earnings recovery are still expected to provide support for the market. After adjustments, the medium-term cost-effectiveness of overall A-share valuations has further improved, and the structural overvaluation problems faced by some sectors in the first half of the year have also improved considerably; the full year is expected to usher in the best performance period in the past five years; the reconstruction of the global monetary order and the technology narrative still support A-shares. CICC believes that, overall, the domestic fundamentals and medium-term logic have not changed, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the market's medium-term trend. At the allocation level, return to the "barbell structure." In its October 12 report "Return to the Barbell Structure?", CICC argued that in an environment of limited overall growth elasticity, coexisting structural high prosperity, and increased volatility in market risk appetite, the "technology + dividend" barbell structure is expected to become an allocation choice that balances earnings growth elasticity, shareholder cash returns, and portfolio stability. Specifically, focus on two main lines. 1) Areas where third-quarter earnings growth improves quarter-on-quarter: for example, some upstream non-ferrous metals and technology hardware benefiting from high AI prosperity and overseas demand. 2) High-dividend assets: domestic long-end interest rates are at historically low levels, listed companies overall maintain dividend yields and dividend scale, and during periods of high investor wait-and-see sentiment, the high-dividend sector once again becomes an important choice for capital allocation.
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