While conflict in Iran has severely impacted Gulf production capacity and obstructed oil export routes, core OPEC+ members are still expected to advance their production increase agenda at the June 7 meeting. According to information from four informed sources cited by Reuters, seven key OPEC+ oil-producing nations will convene on June 7 and are anticipated to reach an agreement on July production targets, with a proposed increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day. All sources requested anonymity and emphasized that a final decision has not yet been made. OPEC data indicates that, due to the impact of the conflict in Iran, OPEC+'s overall production has plummeted from 42.77 million barrels per day in February this year to 33.19 million barrels per day in April, with Gulf producers alone seeing a monthly reduction of 9.9 million barrels. Despite actual delivery being obstructed, the alliance has consecutively raised its production targets for several months since April. The conflict's impact on spare capacity lies deeper: the exporting nations affected are precisely those within the alliance that possess the only significant spare capacity capable of expanding supply when necessary—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the recently departed United Arab Emirates (UAE). This means that even as the alliance continues to raise targets, the practical scope for increasing actual production remains severely constrained under wartime conditions. Three OPEC+-related meetings are scheduled concurrently for June 7. The other two meetings involving a broader membership are not expected to result in any policy-level changes, according to informed sources. Since the UAE's departure from OPEC+, the alliance's monthly production increase increments have narrowed. Analysts and meeting participants suggest that the UAE's exit has diminished the alliance's overall market influence but may, on the other hand, help strengthen cohesion among the remaining members. The seven core members participating in the June 7 meeting include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. These nations previously maintained unchanged production levels in the first quarter of 2026 and initiated a series of consecutive production increases starting in April. It is noteworthy that the alliance-wide agreement to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, reached in 2022, is planned to remain in effect until the end of 2026. This agreement originally included a reduction quota of 160,000 barrels per day allocated to the UAE. However, with the UAE's departure, the related arrangements have been adjusted.
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