According to the latest forecast from classification society DNV, clean hydrogen production is projected to increase 100-fold by 2060, driven by energy security concerns and large-scale expansion in China.
In its recent report, "Energy Transition Outlook 2026: Hydrogen Outlook to 2060," DNV states that, supported by cumulative investments totaling $3.2 trillion, the global hydrogen volume is expected to grow by 170% by 2060.
The report indicates that China is anticipated to account for 35% of the global increase in hydrogen production and demand growth during this period, benefiting from its dominant electrolyzer manufacturing base and expanding renewable energy capacity.
Clean hydrogen demand is forecast to be primarily led by the steel manufacturing, aviation, and shipping industries. By 2060, these three sectors are collectively projected to represent over half of the total clean hydrogen usage.
DNV noted that its hydrogen forecast for mid-century has been revised downward by 35% compared to its 2022 outlook, due to slower policy support and greater advancements in electrification technologies.
Ditlev Engel, CEO of DNV Energy Systems, commented, "The hydrogen industry is poised for growth, but this momentum remains fragile. Hydrogen can address the most challenging aspects of the decarbonization efforts many countries have committed to. By enabling key sectors to move away from fossil fuel dependence, hydrogen also makes a meaningful contribution to energy security. Now is the time for policymakers to carefully examine the actual progress made and take decisive action."
DNV projects that half of the new renewable-powered electrolyzer capacity for hydrogen production installed by 2030 will be located in Europe and China.
The company also warned that future growth depends on building confidence in hydrogen safety, certification, and emissions verification systems.
Magnus Killingland, Global Head of Hydrogen at DNV, added, "Looking ahead, the key lies in fine-tuning regulations, embedding them into legislation, verifying safety concepts, documenting technical performance, and certifying emission reductions. This is precisely how renewable and low-carbon hydrogen can bring about transformation in sectors that are difficult to electrify."
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