BOCOM INTL released a research report stating that the global economy in 2025 has demonstrated stronger-than-expected resilience, with the AI technology cycle still unfolding and policy continuity maintained. Looking ahead to 2026, the global macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, with economic growth retaining some resilience while interest rates may remain at restrictive levels.
Under conditions of resilient growth, elevated inflation, and high interest rates, the core logic of asset allocation is shifting toward a balanced offensive-defensive strategy. BOCOM INTL's key views are as follows:
**Hong Kong Stocks: Earnings Recovery Expected, "Slow Bull" to Continue** Valuations remain within a reasonable range, offering attractive risk-reward ratios. Liquidity conditions continue to improve, supported by inflows from southbound and returning overseas capital. Structural bright spots in China's economy—such as AI technology, anti-involution policies, and domestic demand recovery—are expected to translate into earnings growth.
**U.S. Stocks: "Bubble" Hard to Disprove Short-Term, Awaiting Style Rotation** Tech giants benefiting from the AI revolution and capital expenditure expansion still enjoy valuation support due to strong earnings growth and technological barriers. However, risks such as slowing investment and credit concerns warrant caution. Additionally, the divergence between large-cap and small-cap stocks may narrow, with small-caps and cyclical stocks potentially catching up.
**U.S. Bonds: Interest Rate Pressure Remains Upward, Long-End Yields Under Strain** The "higher-for-longer" rate regime is unlikely to ease, with long-term yields facing pressure from inflation, fiscal policies, and policy uncertainty. The yield curve may steepen further.
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