Recent events have seen the "first humanoid robot stock," UBTECH ROBOTICS, grappling with public scrutiny and volatile share price movements.
In late June, UBTECH officially launched its U1 hyper-realistic companion robot, aiming to ignite market enthusiasm with a new narrative in the consumer-grade bionics segment. Its share price surged as much as 18% intraday, closing up 7.48% at HK$102.8. Simultaneously, the announcement of over 13,000 pre-orders rapidly fueled speculation about a potential "second growth curve" in the consumer market. On July 3rd, amid a broader sector rally, UBTECH's stock surged nearly 18% again.
However, concerns over the robot's actual appearance versus expectations, a battery life of only 2 to 4 hours, and a price range spanning from over one hundred thousand to nearly a million yuan have fueled ongoing skepticism. On July 6th, UBTECH's stock plunged 10.01%, continuing its decline over the next two trading sessions. The three-day cumulative drop approached 19%, a significant pullback from the HK$113.6 high reached on the launch day.
With the September 16th delivery deadline fast approaching, the real stress test for UBTECH may be just beginning.
Two Key Hurdles for the U1: Price and Battery Life
Although the market had some expectation for the price range of humanoid robots before the launch, the final pricing for the U1 series still exceeded many predictions. The U1 Lite is priced at 119,800 yuan, the U1 Pro at 169,800 yuan, and the premium U1 Ultra models are priced at 990,000 yuan (male) and 880,000 yuan (female), a range that has raised eyebrows.
UBTECH clarified from a product positioning perspective that the models primarily targeting households and individuals are the torso-only U1 Lite and the high-spec full-body U1 Pro. The U1 Ultra is a high-dynamic version intended mainly for commercial scenarios.
The gap between the product's actual performance and consumer expectations quickly became apparent. The U1 Pro, priced close to 170,000 yuan (159,800 yuan after pre-sale discount) and expected to be the volume driver, features a full humanoid body with 88 joint actuators. However, it lacks autonomous walking capability, must be placed in a fixed position, and does not possess household assistance functions like floor cleaning, fetching water, health monitoring, or mobility support.
Furthermore, after real-world demonstration footage from the launch event circulated, more experiential shortcomings surfaced. Many netizens criticized the robot's stiff walking movements, noticeable awkwardness and stuttering in its gait, mechanical facial micro-expressions, and instances of delayed or irrelevant responses during prolonged conversational interactions. These criticisms spread in the market, becoming a focus of public discussion.
Before the debate over functional limitations subsided, battery life emerged as a new point of contention. The official product information states a "full charge battery life of approximately ≥4 hours." However, some reports indicate the U1 series has a single-charge battery life of 2 to 4 hours.
Imagine a scenario where a user is deeply engaged in an emotional conversation with the robot, only for it to suddenly power down, requiring manual relocation to a charging dock. Netizens have quipped, "Spent over a hundred thousand yuan on an electronic ornament that needs personal attendants."
In response, UBTECH stated, "Currently, the battery life for full-size humanoid robots is generally 2-4 hours across the industry."
Indeed, limited by factors like liquid lithium battery energy density, robot torso space, and weight, battery life is a common challenge facing the humanoid robot industry. Research from TrendForce also notes that current mainstream global humanoid robots typically have battery life locked between 2 and 4 hours, with battery capacities mostly under 2 kWh.
"For a robot focused on companionship, user experience is crucial. If a user treats it as a person and is in the middle of a conversation when it runs out of power, it creates a very disjointed feeling—this isn't companionship, it's a tool," remarked Cai Bingzhen, Director of the Gaogong Robot Research Institute. He believes battery life for humanoid robots should be matched to specific service scenarios, and companion robots, which require extensive interaction, ideally need over 12 hours of runtime.
Assessing the Value of the 10,000-Unit Order
Notably, on the day of the U1 series launch, UBTECH CEO Zhou Jian announced that cumulative pre-orders across online and offline channels had exceeded 13,361 units. This figure is seen as key evidence supporting UBTECH's push for a second growth curve in the consumer market—compared to the 1,079 units of full-size humanoid robots delivered in the 2025 fiscal year, the order volume represents a more than tenfold leap, providing a significant short-term boost to market sentiment in Hong Kong.
However, scrutinizing this ten-thousand-unit order from four perspectives—order counting methodology, e-commerce data, deposit refund rules, and existing production capacity—raises questions about its certainty.
The main online sales channel for the U1 Pro is UBTECH's JD.com self-operated flagship store. Public pre-sale data shows that one month prior (June 8th), pre-orders exceeded 2,700 units within just a week of launch. After 20 days, cumulative pre-orders surpassed 5,000 units. By 5 PM on launch day, the JD.com platform showed 5,459 units reserved. However, as of July 8th, the JD.com pre-order count was only 5,613 units. This indicates that after the official launch, new U1 Pro reservations on JD.com increased by less than 200 units, a stark contrast to the previous daily growth rate exceeding 100 units.
Considering only e-commerce platforms, the pre-sale period on JD.com and Tmall ends on July 15th, with a deposit of 3,000 yuan. Based on the current figure of over 5,600 units across both platforms, deposit revenue for the U1 Pro is close to 17 million yuan. If all these orders complete payment, at the 159,800 yuan price point, these 5,600+ orders would generate approximately 900 million yuan in revenue. Assuming the previously disclosed 13,361 orders are all for the U1 Pro at 159,800 yuan each, this order batch would bring UBTECH 2.135 billion yuan in revenue, exceeding its total annual revenue of 2.001 billion yuan in 2025.
Regarding the sales breakdown across U1 models and channels, inquiries were made to UBTECH in early July, but no response was received by the time of publication.
It is important to note that before final payment, consumers can refund their deposits in full without reason, incurring no penalty. Furthermore, manufacturers often include distributor lock-in orders and leads from offline exhibitions in their disclosed "full-channel" order figures. Such intentions do not require payment and, if canceled, do not convert to actual revenue. This implies significant uncertainty regarding how many of the 13,361 total pre-orders will translate into confirmed sales.
More critically, once batch deliveries begin in September, the U1 series will face large-scale real-world testing. If the actual experience falls short of promotional claims, there is a risk of customer cancellations, potentially further depressing the order conversion rate.
Beyond this, production capacity could also pose a delivery bottleneck. To date, UBTECH has not disclosed mass production plans or capacity reserves for the U1 series. Whether orders can be delivered on time and in full remains unknown.
According to UBTECH's annual report, as of the end of 2025, its annualized production capacity for full-size embodied intelligent humanoid robots exceeded 6,000 units, with capacity utilization below 20%, indicating significant room for improvement.
Li Qingdu, Executive Dean of the Ligong Machine Intelligence Research Institute, explained that manufacturing bionic robots is far more complex than industrial humanoid robots. A single head unit contains two to three thousand components, with eyebrows, eyelashes, and skin textures relying on manual craftsmanship, lacking fully automated assembly lines for mass production. Personalized customization further extends the production cycle per unit.
Based on calculations of existing mature production line capacity, even if all capacity were dedicated to the U1 series, the maximum possible deliveries within the year might not cover the current order volume. According to media reports, Zhou Jian stated that the production capacity target for the U1 series by 2027 is at least 50,000 units.
In this context, Li Qingdu raised a more immediate question: Order volume is a prerequisite for supporting delivery capacity, but ensuring sufficient orders for next year might be the more pressing issue at present.
The Imperative of a Consumer Shift
As a major player in the humanoid robot field, UBTECH was founded in 2012 and is one of the earliest Chinese companies to venture into humanoid robotics. In 2014, it launched its first small humanoid robot, Alpha, gaining initial R&D and market experience in consumer robots. Subsequently, UBTECH pivoted its focus towards industrial scenarios, gradually developing the Walker series, with successive iterations like the Walker S, Walker S1, and Walker S2 deployed in global manufacturing giants such as BYD, Airbus, and Hitachi Elevator.
At the end of 2023, UBTECH listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, earning the title of "first humanoid robot stock." However, prior to launching the consumer-focused U1 hyper-realistic companion robot series, its recognition in capital markets and among the public remained deeply tied to its established identity as a B2B industrial and commercial service provider. Its Walker series primarily targets B2B clients like factories and industrial parks, delivered on a project basis with unit prices often reaching several hundred thousand yuan.
Annual reports show that in 2025, UBTECH sold 1,079 units of full-size embodied intelligent humanoid robots, generating revenue of 821 million yuan, a staggering 2,203.7% year-on-year increase. This segment became the company's largest revenue source, accounting for 41.1% of total revenue.
However, this sales volume struggles to compete with "latecomers" like Unitree Robotics and Zhiyuan Robot in the intense industry competition. In January this year, Unitree disclosed its actual humanoid robot shipments for 2025 exceeded 5,500 units (referring to units actually sold and shipped to end customers, not order numbers), with over 6,500 units produced. An IDC report also indicated Zhiyuan Robot's 2025 shipments reached approximately 5,200 units.
The gap in profitability is also pronounced. From 2023 to 2025, Unitree's operating revenue grew from 159 million yuan to 1.699 billion yuan, a compound annual growth rate of 226.78%. Correspondingly, its net profit attributable to shareholders rose from a loss of 11.1451 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 278 million yuan in 2025, making it one of the few profitable humanoid robot companies in China.
In contrast, UBTECH has been in a loss-making position in recent years. From 2023 to 2025, while its revenue grew from 1.055 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan, its corresponding annual losses were 1.23 billion yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 790 million yuan respectively, accumulating over 3 billion yuan in losses over three years.
Faced with the reality of intensifying industrial competition and profitability pressure, UBTECH's turn towards the home scenario appears almost inevitable.
In late June, Zhou Jian stated in a media interview that the technological barriers for industrial humanoid robots are becoming homogenized, potentially reducing them to mere hardware with limited ecosystem space, existing more as solutions. In contrast, if a genuine emotional connection can be established in home scenarios, interaction would shift from passive commands to active companionship, harboring greater ecosystem potential and, in the long run, possibly superior profit margins compared to the industrial side. He emphasized that UBTECH was a pioneer in both industrial robots and bionic home companion robots and would not abandon either path.
Regarding the rationale for moving from industrial to home companionship and balancing the dual business lines, Zhou Jian responded that the company currently adopts a "three-pronged" strategic layout covering industrial humanoid robots, commercial service robots, and home companion robots. He projected that humanoid robot-related business would account for over 80% of the company's total revenue in 2026, with the home scenario viewed as the growth pole with the greatest ecosystem potential.
"What truly determines whether a company can remain invincible might be the home scenario," Zhou Jian admitted. "The home scenario holds the most imagination and is most likely to foster an ecosystem. If I must allocate my focus, I personally put 50% on commercial and industrial, and the other 50% on home."
Indeed, since 2025, the trend of the humanoid robot industry accelerating its penetration from B2B to consumer markets has become increasingly evident. Multiple brands have launched consumer-grade products for home scenarios, creating a multi-brand competitive landscape. A search on JD.com reveals humanoid robots can be filtered by application scenario and brand. Besides UBTECH, companies like Unitree, Songyan Power, Zhongqing, Zhiyuan, and Zhuji Power all have related products for sale, with prices ranging from tens of thousands to over a million yuan, indicating a fully formed competitive red ocean.
So, in this cross-border battle to move from the factory to the home, what are UBTECH's chances of success?
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