On Thursday, June 4th, international gold prices closed higher, buoyed by supportive data and market optimism.
The price found support from buying interest at the 200-day moving average. Positive sentiment was fueled by news that the U.S. was in final negotiations to end the war in Iran and rising hopes for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Additionally, U.S. weekly initial jobless claims for the period ending May 30th came in higher than expected, leading to a pullback in the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices, which further supported gold.
Despite these gains, the rally was capped by profit-taking, with gold closing below its short-term moving averages, indicating continued pressure on the bulls. The overall trend remains within a weak and consolidative framework.
In terms of price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,437.91 per ounce, initially dipping to a daily low of $4,423.69 before rebounding. A significant rally occurred towards the end of the European session, pushing the price to a daily high of $4,515.14 during early U.S. trading.
The metal subsequently retreated from this peak, closing the day at $4,475.03. The daily trading range was $91.45, resulting in a gain of $37.12, or 0.84%.
Looking ahead to Friday, June 5th, gold opened on a weaker note, pressured by the previous session's late pullback and resistance from short-term moving averages. However, the current weakness in crude oil and the U.S. dollar is expected to limit the downside for gold.
On the fundamental front, optimism persists regarding the U.S.-Iran negotiations, with both sides appearing inclined to reach a final agreement. Following yesterday's data showing weekly jobless claims rising to 225,000—a high since February—tonight's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for May is anticipated to meet or fall short of expectations, which would be supportive for gold prices.
Consequently, the trading strategy for gold today remains focused on buying on dips.
From a technical perspective on the weekly chart, gold remains within a descending trend channel, with oscillators also signaling bearish momentum, suggesting a weak outlook. However, the price is currently near the bottom support line of the channel, indicating a potential for a rebound.
Any short-term bounce will face resistance at the channel's upper boundary. A sustained close back above $4,800 would open the path for a further move towards $5,100 or higher. On the downside, a decisive break and close below the channel support could trigger a decline towards $4,100 or even $3,800. Until such breaks occur, the market is expected to continue its consolidation.
On the daily chart, gold remains confined within a descending trend channel from the $4,980 high, indicating a weak trend outlook. Until this pattern is broken, the expectation is for continued consolidation and range-bound trading.
The key focus on the downside remains the support from the 200-day moving average and the channel's lower boundary for potential bullish rebounds. On the upside, resistance will be monitored at the short-term moving averages, the 30-day moving average, and the upper boundary of the channel for potential selling opportunities.
Intraday trading guidance and specific entry/exit points will be provided based on real-time market conditions.
Preliminary reference levels for the session are as follows, with final execution points subject to real-time updates:
Gold: Support is watched around $4,440 or $4,410; Resistance is eyed around $4,500 or $4,540.
Silver: Support is watched around $73.10 or $72.45; Resistance is eyed around $74.80 or $75.75.
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