On May 8, the cryptocurrency market continued its upward trend, with the price of Bitcoin rising to around $81,600 per coin. Statements from US Secretary of State Rubio alleviated concerns about further military escalation, putting downward pressure on both the US dollar and oil prices, thereby providing new room for the valuation of risk assets. OEXN indicated that BTC has climbed from approximately $63,000 to above $80,000 over the past three months, driven by sustained institutional fund inflows and reasonable leverage levels, which together support the continuation of the bullish pattern. The institution's analysis suggests that key signals monitored by professional investors consistently point to the next target level near $85,000 per coin.
From a market structure perspective, BTC is trading above a key cost baseline. The funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned from negative to neutral, indicating a clear release of previous short-selling pressure. OEXN believes that market makers hold short gamma exposure around the $82,000 per coin level; a price increase could trigger hedging-related buying, providing further upward momentum. The institution assesses that while Bitcoin futures open interest is approaching a historical high of 800,000 coins, the perpetual funding rate remains in a slightly positive range, suggesting the market is not yet showing signs of overheating or excessive crowding, and the fund structure remains healthy.
On the macroeconomic front, a marginal easing of geopolitical tensions and a decline in oil prices have collectively alleviated market concerns about the inflation trajectory. A marginal drop in US Treasury yields has reduced downward pressure on the valuation anchor for risk assets. Institutions observe that long-term Bitcoin holders' positions are relatively stable, selling pressure from miners is moderate, and the market structure shows no significant deterioration. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual contract funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings are also important indicators for gauging institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market, and should be analyzed comprehensively alongside multi-dimensional data. For long-term participants, focusing on whether weekly closes hold above key levels is far more indicative than intraday volatility; observing across multiple timeframes helps filter out noise.
OEXN anticipates that Bitcoin may continue its short-term ascent to test the $85,000 per coin target, with directional movement more likely to be driven by macroeconomic data and institutional fund behavior. The institution emphasizes that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets require investors to prioritize risk budgeting and position control. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy path, the direction of Treasury yields, regulatory developments, and flows into spot ETFs to avoid excessive trading driven by one-sided sentiment and to adapt to market turning points with a rational approach.
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