Abstract
AGNC Investment Corp will release its quarterly results on January 26, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to stable topline and margin metrics while investors focus on net interest income resilience and book value dynamics amid rate volatility.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, consensus and internal projections indicate revenue of USD 376.06 million with an estimated year-over-year growth of 75.38%, EBIT of USD 410.35 million with an estimated year-over-year growth of 7.50%, and estimated EPS of USD 0.37 with an estimated year-over-year decline of 12.81%. Forecast details do not include gross profit margin or net profit margin; the company’s margin profile is expected to be driven by net interest income sensitivity to mortgage spreads and hedging costs. The company’s main business centers on REIT – Mortgage activities with revenue of USD 836.00 million last quarter, and the outlook hinges on prepayment speeds, funding costs, and portfolio convexity; the most promising driver remains core earnings from mortgage-backed securities carry, with expected revenue of USD 376.06 million and year-over-year growth of 75.38%.
Last Quarter Review
Last quarter, AGNC Investment Corp reported revenue of USD 148.00 million, a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 806.00 million, a net profit margin of 96.41%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.35, with adjusted EPS declining 18.61% year over year. A notable highlight was a sharp quarter-on-quarter rebound in GAAP net income, rising 675.71%, reflecting favorable spread and valuation dynamics across the investment portfolio. The main business was REIT – Mortgage with revenue of USD 836.00 million; year-over-year dynamics were primarily influenced by rate path expectations, asset valuation changes, and hedging outcomes.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business performance drivers
AGNC Investment Corp’s primary earnings engine is net interest income generated from its agency mortgage-backed securities portfolio, which is influenced by asset yields, repo funding costs, and the effectiveness of its interest rate hedges. For this quarter, the revenue estimate of USD 376.06 million and EBIT estimate of USD 410.35 million indicate expectations for healthy core earnings supported by relatively stable mortgage basis and controlled funding costs. The forecast EPS of USD 0.37 points to ongoing pressure versus last year, as the yield curve shape and spread dynamics temper per-share profitability despite improving topline momentum. Management’s operating decisions around leverage, coupon positioning, and hedge duration should have a visible impact on reported margins and comprehensive income given recent rate volatility. Investors will also watch book value per share sensitivity, since mark-to-market gains or losses on the MBS portfolio and hedges can overshadow period earnings in shaping equity value.
Most promising business driver
The carry from agency MBS remains the largest and most promising driver for this quarter, as incremental spread capture and disciplined hedge deployment can sustain net interest income even if rate momentum is mixed. With revenue forecast to reach USD 376.06 million, up 75.38% year over year, upside could come from stable or tighter mortgage spreads, slower prepayments that maintain asset yields, and funding cost relief if front-end rates stabilize. Portfolio mix skewed toward higher-coupon MBS could bolster asset yields, but it also introduces convexity and hedge costs that need to be balanced; the company’s ability to manage duration and convexity risk should be central to margin outcomes and EPS performance.
Key stock price swing factors this quarter
The path of interest rates and the mortgage basis will likely drive near-term price action, as even modest basis widening can pressure book value while narrowing can lift comprehensive income and investor sentiment. Funding cost dynamics through the repo market and the effectiveness of interest rate swaps and options hedges will feed through to net interest margin and earnings durability. Share performance could also reflect signals on dividend sustainability relative to core earnings, as the market often calibrates valuation to the trajectory of distributable earnings versus payout levels; any commentary on leverage targets, portfolio turnover, and hedge coverage will shape expectations for risk-adjusted returns into the next quarter.
Analyst Opinions
Most institutional commentary over the past months has leaned neutral-to-positive, with a cautiously constructive stance driven by expectations of steady core earnings and manageable book value sensitivity to rates. Analysts emphasizing a supportive mortgage basis and prudent hedging point to a solid setup for sustaining mid-cycle earnings power, while noting that EPS faces year-over-year pressure from funding costs and share count dynamics. The majority view anticipates a balanced outcome: revenue and core income largely tracking forecasts, with valuation hinging on book value commentary and any signs of spread normalization; several well-followed analysts highlight that downside risk would come from unexpected basis widening or faster-than-projected prepayment activity, whereas upside could stem from stabilizing funding costs and favorable duration positioning.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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