On October 22, gold prices continued their range-bound trading during yesterday's session. Asian trading opened with little movement, essentially fluctuating within the 4,100-4,130 range. The US session saw a rebound above 4,140, but it failed to hold, and prices eventually returned to the range. Gold ultimately closed at 4,140 dollars, with the daily chart showing a small bullish candle. On Thursday (October 22), the 4,100 level has been tested more times than one can count. Each time it seemed like "this time it might break," yet each time it held. Both bulls and bears are growing weary. The most direct catalyst for gold's recovery from 4,104 yesterday was the pullback in US Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield fell for a second consecutive trading day, closing near 5.11%. Falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, giving prices a breather.
Tonight, the US will release weekly initial jobless claims. If employment data shows clear weakness, it could give gold a chance for a relief rally; conversely, if employment remains solid, the market will further reinforce expectations of "higher rates for longer," potentially keeping gold under pressure.
Technically, gold's price action was choppy in overnight late trading but did not break out of the range. This morning's pullback once again confirms that the market currently leans toward weak corrective behavior. On the upside, initial attention may be paid to short-term resistance near 4,125-30, with the main resistance continuing to be the upper boundary of the hourly range at 4,140-45. On the downside, focus first on the 4,005-00 battle, where the likelihood of a breakdown is increasing, and in all probability, technical requirements will be met with a test of support near 4,080.
In summary, gold is currently in a frustrating range-bound market. Following one's own rhythm, it is advisable for gold traders to keep positions light and wait for tonight's data before acting. Watch the 4,100 integer level first. If it breaks down, expect a wave of selling, and consider a short trade accordingly. If it holds before the US session, continue with range-bound long positions.
Today's Trading Recommendations:
Gold: Aggressive traders may go long at 4,106-4,105, stop loss at 4,099, target 4,140-4,150. If 4,099 breaks, exit longs on a rebound and go short, targeting 4,060-4,070.
Key Economic Data and Events to Watch Today:
Thursday, October 22, 2026
20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 17
22:00 US September Conference Board Leading Economic Index MoM
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