Hong Kong stocks ended mixed on October 26, with the three major indices diverging. By the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.51% to 23,211.81, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.36%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index gained 0.59%.
On the board, tech internet stocks were mixed, with Meituan up over 3% and Lenovo down over 3%. Oil stocks generally rose, with PetroChina up more than 5%. Coal stocks were active, with Nannan Resources up over 7%. The optical communication sector weakened, with YOFC down more than 8%.
Oil stocks broadly advanced, with PetroChina gaining over 5%. Ping An Securities noted that the geopolitical standoff in the Middle East is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, with risks of escalation in both the US-Iran and Yemen situations. The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz is deteriorating, and the probability of a new round of US military strikes on Iran is rising. Meanwhile, the Yemen situation is spiraling upward, with Houthi forces continuing to attack airports and oil facilities inside Saudi Arabia, significantly affecting Saudi crude exports and refining operations. In summary, we believe geopolitical risks still provide strong support for international oil prices.
Coal stocks were active, with Nannan Resources up over 7%. Winter storage demand provides a阶段性 catalyst. The price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port has broken through the 1,000 yuan per ton mark, rising to 1,040 yuan per ton as of October 21, an increase of over 50% year-to-date. Institutions expect strong restocking momentum from power plants in November and December, and coal prices are likely to continue their firm trend. Dividend style support. Against the backdrop of increased volatility in technology growth sectors, funds are switching to dividend assets such as coal, further boosting sector attention. CITIC Securities expects sample coal companies' net profits to grow about 27% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, with profitability continuing to improve in the fourth quarter.
The optical communication sector weakened, with YOFC down over 8%. Recent market concerns about AI companies' investment returns and financing sustainability have led to significant adjustments in AI hardware stocks. The current earnings season has entered a performance verification period, and the matching of valuations and earnings is facing re-evaluation. Notably, Elon Musk's latest prediction is that in recent weeks, debt markets have almost completely cut off funding channels, and any company without independent large-scale revenue outside of AI data centers can hardly obtain financing. This means more than 200 new cloud service providers will face death and consolidation like "big fish eating small fish."
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