Chinese equity markets experienced heightened volatility, retreating after two consecutive days of gains. On February 5th, the three major indices closed collectively lower, with metals and hard technology sectors extending their declines, while major financial and consumer stocks advanced in unison. As the Spring Festival approaches, active trading volume showed signs of cooling, with full-market turnover reaching 2.19 trillion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive day of contraction.
The banking sector broke through the volatile market, strengthening for two consecutive days. The largest bank ETF by scale (512800) rose 1.67% on increased volume, notably highlighting the sector's historically high performance probability before the Spring Festival. Securities firms gained momentum in the afternoon session, with a top-tier券商ETF (512000) rallying from intraday lows to secure consecutive gains.
Anticipation for the "longest nine-day Spring Festival holiday in history" fueled consumer enthusiasm, driving broad activity across consumer sectors. The Consumer Leaders ETF (516130) advanced for three straight sessions, while Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. shares hit a new six-month high. The high-alcohol-content Food and Beverage ETF HuaBao (515710) gained 1%, marking four consecutive days of increases.
A plunge in Asia-Pacific gold and silver prices triggered sharp declines in metals stocks, with the Nonferrous Metals ETF HuaBao (159876) falling over 6% intraday before closing down 4.8%. Capital flowed in against the trend, with net subscriptions reaching 21 million shares for the day. Chemical sectors followed suit, with the 7.4 billion scale Chemical ETF (516020) retreating 1.9%.
Technology sectors remained sluggish, with the hard technology broad-based双创龙头ETF (588330) closing down 1.8%. The "AI twin stars"—ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF HuaBao (159363) and STAR Market Artificial Intelligence ETF HuaBao (589520)—both fell approximately 2%. Overnight, weaker-than-expected earnings guidance from Advanced Micro Devices sparked a selloff in U.S. chip stocks, while a wave of selling in software sectors amplified market concerns.
Regarding market outlook, China Securities Co., Ltd. noted that rising risk aversion before the Spring Festival may pressure short-term markets, though the adjustment scope for the full A-share index remains limited. Stability is expected pre-holiday, potentially followed by a new upward trend. For sector allocation, long-term confidence remains in the dual themes of "technology + resources," while accelerated style rotations warrant attention to previously adjusted tech tracks, financial sectors, and midstream manufacturing.
Focusing on banking, food & beverage, and metals sectors:
1. Banking stocks continued their strong performance, with Xiamen Bank罕见ly hitting the daily limit-up to refresh highs since June 2021. Chongqing Bank gained nearly 6%, while Shanghai Bank rose over 4%. The largest bank ETF (512800) climbed 1.67% with turnover of 10.71 billion yuan. Main funds flooded in with a net inflow of 5.502 billion yuan for the day, ranking second among all Shenwan primary industries. Historical data shows banking sectors outperform with 80% absolute and excess return probability pre-Spring Festival over the past decade. Among 10 banks disclosing 2025 performance previews, all reported net profit growth, with 9 achieving dual revenue-profit growth.
2. Food and beverage sectors rallied against the market trend, with the sector ETF (515710) gaining 1%. Constituent stocks like Tianwei Food surged over 7%, while Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. rose nearly 2%. The sector's valuation remains low, with the index P/E ratio at 20.93x—near the 11.74 percentile over 10 years. Analysts note baijiu demand is gradually improving, with pre-holiday sales accelerating and cyclical reversal opportunities anticipated in 2026.
3. Nonferrous metals retreated sharply, with the sector ETF (515710) falling 4.8%, yet attracting 21 million shares of net subscriptions. The decline was attributed to tumbling international precious metal prices and potential USD liquidity pressures. However, macroeconomic support includes potential Fed rate cuts, industry acquisitions by leading miners, and strong 2025 earnings forecasts. Analysts project the metals boom may sustain for 3–5 years due to supply-demand mismatches, accommodative policies, and industrial upgrades, though short-term volatility from profit-taking remains a risk.
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