CMB International: Strait of Hormuz Closure Could Boost Coal Prices, Benefiting Yancoal Australia

Stock News03-10

According to an analysis, CMB International has issued a report suggesting that Yancoal Australia (03668) is poised to benefit in the near term, given its significant exposure to thermal coal sales, which is projected to reach 84% by 2025. The report estimates that for every 1% increase in thermal coal prices, the company's net profit would rise by 5%. The firm has maintained its target price of HK$38 and a "buy" rating on the stock. The analysis points out that natural gas prices surged by 70% over the past week due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in natural gas production in the Middle East. A shortage of natural gas and soaring prices may lead to a shift in energy consumption from gas to coal, as coal supply faces fewer disruptions. Historically, seaborne thermal coal prices have moved in tandem with European natural gas prices, with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 over the past decade.

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