蚂蚁的光荣与代价：最大IPO，最强紧箍咒

新金融琅琊榜2020-11-03

作者：董云峰对蚂蚁而言，当前营收与盈利贡献最重要的微贷业务，被迫银行化了。在我们看来，监管部门并没有做错什么，马云的呼喊也并非没有道理。只不过，无论企业还是监管者，都无法完全跨越或者跳脱其所处的时代。昨天是炸裂的一天。我们所亲历的历史，大概比所有剧本都要精彩。史上最大IPO即将诞生，史上最强的新金融监管政策亦揭开面纱。蚂蚁集团，在加冕A股股王的同时，也将戴上紧箍咒。而事情或许没那么糟糕。0110月...

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Comments

Chiholo
2020-11-04
Chiholo
終於在吃飯的桌子上拉屎?
huven123
2020-11-04
huven123
體量太大了，拿極少的資本金去借貸，拿花唄來說，是個人用螞蟻的擔保去跟廠家買貨，實際上並沒有金錢的交易，螞蟻都不用準備多少錢。但是一旦螞蟻出事，清算的就得是一連串的，包括廠家、個人、銀行。現在的問題，也不是攔住不讓上市，上市對銀行也是利好。而是得在上市以前解決一下資本金的問題，你得爲可能發生的風險事件準備一下解決辦法。——某銀行精算師的理解
- Chiholo:
  蚂蚁上市估计你很快要换东家啦
san
2020-11-04
san
美國打壓中國企業也罷了，國人還不斷桶刀子。。鼠目寸光的這些豬隊友一定會成爲歷史的恥辱
- 风花梦月:
  智障儿童
万象入星辰
2020-11-03
万象入星辰
666
专业割韭菜777
2020-11-03
专业割韭菜777
全世界最大的“合法”高利貸公司，國家不搞你不是因爲搞不了你，而是因爲不想搞你！不要太飄！
nomore
2020-11-03
nomore
爲了A股的未來，螞蟻應該破發，註冊制需要一次破發

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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-11-03/doc-iiznctkc9180349.shtml><strong>新金融琅琊榜</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：董云峰对蚂蚁而言，当前营收与盈利贡献最重要的微贷业务，被迫银行化了。在我们看来，监管部门并没有做错什么，马云的呼喊也并非没有道理。只不过，无论企业还是监管者，都无法完全跨越或者跳脱其所处的时代。昨天是炸裂的一天。我们所亲历的历史，大概比所有剧本都要精彩。史上最大IPO即将诞生，史上最强的新金融监管政策亦揭开面纱。蚂蚁集团，在加冕A股股王的同时，也将戴上紧箍咒。而事情或许没那么糟糕。0110月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-11-03/doc-iiznctkc9180349.shtml\">Source 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Curse","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cab9270e853ca18cd88394da5e209b6","symbols_score_info":{"688688":0.9,"06688":0.9},"content_text":"作者：董云峰对蚂蚁而言，当前营收与盈利贡献最重要的微贷业务，被迫银行化了。在我们看来，监管部门并没有做错什么，马云的呼喊也并非没有道理。只不过，无论企业还是监管者，都无法完全跨越或者跳脱其所处的时代。昨天是炸裂的一天。我们所亲历的历史，大概比所有剧本都要精彩。史上最大IPO即将诞生，史上最强的新金融监管政策亦揭开面纱。蚂蚁集团，在加冕A股股王的同时，也将戴上紧箍咒。而事情或许没那么糟糕。0110月24日，蚂蚁确定IPO定价的第二天，马云在外滩金融峰会上“火力全开”。他当着众多高级官员的面，毫不客气地批评银行过度依赖抵押物，批评监管不能用昨天的办法管未来，批评巴塞尔协议像一个老年人俱乐部。针对马云的言论，金融监管系统展开了一连串的反击，直接或间接，实名或化名，从央行、银保监会到金融委，从在职官员到退休官员。高潮发生在昨日晚间，证监会网站发布了一条题为《四部门联合约谈蚂蚁集团有关人员》的新闻稿，只有短短65个字：11月2日，中国人民银行、中国银保监会、中国证监会、国家外汇管理局对蚂蚁集团实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明进行了监管约谈。表面上，似乎是马云的激进言论，惹怒了监管部门，这才有后面这些监管动作。如此推论，当然是荒谬的，低估了马云，更低估了监管部门。人们感到匪夷所思的是，在蚂蚁上市已经落定的情况下，马云为什么以前所未有的尺度，在公开场合向监管部门“开炮”？同样于11月2日晚间公布的《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法（征求意见稿）》（下称《征求意见稿》）给出了答案。02微贷业务是蚂蚁当前最重要的业务之一，该项业务主要通过旗下小贷公司展开。招股书显示，蚂蚁是中国最大的线上消费信贷和小微经营者信贷平台。截至今年6月末，蚂蚁平台促成的消费信贷余额为17,320亿元、小微经营者信贷余额为4,217亿元，合计超过2.1万亿元。按照《征求意见稿》，网络小贷公司必须经银保监会批准才能在全国范围内开展网络贷款业务，极个别大型的网络小贷公司，将由银保监会而不是地方金融监管部门全面管辖。真正的要害是杠杆率，也就是资本金问题。《征求意见稿》规定：经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司通过银行借款、股东借款等非标准化融资形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的1倍；通过发行债券、资产证券化产品等标准化债权类资产形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的4倍。在单笔联合贷款中，经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司的出资比例不得低于30%。上述两条规定叠加起来，直接卡死了杠杆率，使得网络小贷的监管标准全面向银行看齐。目前，蚂蚁与约100家银行合作伙伴合作开展业务，同时也与信托公司合作。在蚂蚁所促成的贷款中，大概98%的贷款由金融机构合作伙伴进行实际放款或已实现资产证券化。翻译过来就是，这2.1万亿元贷款余额，反映在蚂蚁自身的资产负债表当中的，仅有400亿元左右（不含网商银行的700亿元贷款余额）。另一方面，截至6月末，蚂蚁旗下两家小贷公司实收资本合计160亿元，净资产合计358.24亿元；同期蚂蚁集团总资产3158.98亿元，净资产2149.31亿元。根据金融监管研究院的分析，如果将蚂蚁出资比例提高到30%，意味着同样驱动1.8万亿联合贷款，需要至少5400亿元表内贷款，外加1700亿元ABS，总计需要通过蚂蚁小贷放款7100亿。而根据表内贷款最多5倍杠杆的原则，蚂蚁小贷资本金需要扩充到1400亿元的规模。也就是说，蚂蚁需要补充的资本金很可能超过1000亿元。对蚂蚁而言，当前营收与盈利贡献最重要的微贷业务，被迫银行化了。而这或许是马云最不希望发生的事情。03马云不是在“开炮”，而是在呼喊。网络小贷关系重大，《征求意见稿》是此前长期博弈之后的结果。在出席外滩金融峰会之前，马云早就知悉了相关内容。马云必须接受的是，蚂蚁加冕的代价，就是接受最强的监管。通过此次A+H上市，蚂蚁筹资规模将达到350亿美元，创下史上最大IPO记录。仅以发行价计算，蚂蚁有望超越贵州茅台，成为A股股王。与此同时，一旦网络小贷监管落地，按照存量信贷业务的资本补充需求计算，蚂蚁需要消耗接近一半的募集资金。真正的挑战是未来，蚂蚁微贷科技平台的扩张空间被束缚住了。需要指出的是，蚂蚁与监管的博弈仍未结束，这份网络小贷的监管文件还在征求意见阶段，一切尚有变数。不管是马云的“开炮”，还是监管部门的反击，都是这场博弈的一部分。或许我们不必那么悲观，从历史上来看，蚂蚁与监管的博弈，无论看似多么激烈，最后的结果都并不坏。不吹不黑，所有新金融从业者都应该感谢马云和蚂蚁的探险。从移动支付到金融科技，他们所作出的历史贡献都是巨大的。然而，一切新金融，归根到底还是金融，金融监管的创新是有边界的。在现阶段，蚂蚁必须接受当代金融监管的主流标准。在新金融琅琊榜看来，监管部门并没有做错什么，马云的呼喊也并非没有道理。只不过，无论企业还是监管者，都无法完全跨越或者跳脱其所处的时代。此外，可以预期的是，一旦网络小贷新政落地，将倒逼蚂蚁加速向非金融领域的创新业务拓展。失之东隅，收之桑榆。从长远来看，这未必是坏事。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":306416782,"gmtCreate":1604448681546,"gmtModify":1704956147022,"author":{"id":"3483863610736658","authorId":"3483863610736658","name":"Chiholo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9dfb279b8115772e8a3a0b59cd2353","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"終於在吃飯的桌子上拉屎?","listText":"終於在吃飯的桌子上拉屎?","text":"終於在吃飯的桌子上拉屎?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/306416782","repostId":1193785921,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":306436063,"gmtCreate":1604446295252,"gmtModify":1704956133029,"author":{"id":"3547679686652895","authorId":"3547679686652895","name":"huven123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53cc05e35b5a5d9cd5d0cd6217bfcfbe","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"體量太大了，拿極少的資本金去借貸，拿花唄來說，是個人用螞蟻的擔保去跟廠家買貨，實際上並沒有金錢的交易，螞蟻都不用準備多少錢。但是一旦螞蟻出事，清算的就得是一連串的，包括廠家、個人、銀行。現在的問題，也不是攔住不讓上市，上市對銀行也是利好。而是得在上市以前解決一下資本金的問題，你得爲可能發生的風險事件準備一下解決辦法。——某銀行精算師的理解","listText":"體量太大了，拿極少的資本金去借貸，拿花唄來說，是個人用螞蟻的擔保去跟廠家買貨，實際上並沒有金錢的交易，螞蟻都不用準備多少錢。但是一旦螞蟻出事，清算的就得是一連串的，包括廠家、個人、銀行。現在的問題，也不是攔住不讓上市，上市對銀行也是利好。而是得在上市以前解決一下資本金的問題，你得爲可能發生的風險事件準備一下解決辦法。——某銀行精算師的理解","text":"體量太大了，拿極少的資本金去借貸，拿花唄來說，是個人用螞蟻的擔保去跟廠家買貨，實際上並沒有金錢的交易，螞蟻都不用準備多少錢。但是一旦螞蟻出事，清算的就得是一連串的，包括廠家、個人、銀行。現在的問題，也不是攔住不讓上市，上市對銀行也是利好。而是得在上市以前解決一下資本金的問題，你得爲可能發生的風險事件準備一下解決辦法。——某銀行精算師的理解","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/306436063","repostId":1193785921,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2998761,"gmtCreate":1604448619117,"gmtModify":1680768189356,"authorId":3483863610736658,"author":{"id":3483863610736658,"authorId":3483863610736658,"name":"Chiholo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9dfb279b8115772e8a3a0b59cd2353","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":306436063,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"蚂蚁上市估计你很快要换东家啦 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