Currently, the soybean meal market is showing a volatile upward trend with relatively strong performance. Regarding the future direction of the soybean meal market, views from relevant institutions are summarized as follows:
Ningzheng Futures stated that the main soybean meal contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2,950 to 3,040 yuan per ton in the near term. On the spot market, downstream purchasing interest is weak, with buyers mainly procuring as needed. Recently, oil mills have been actively selling basis contracts for May-July 2027, with robust trading activity. After entering May, a large volume of soybeans is expected to arrive at Chinese ports, and rapeseed crushing in southern China will begin intensively. The downstream livestock sector continues to face losses. Soybean meal inventories may start to increase, suggesting a short-term volatile outlook with a strategy favoring buying on dips.
New Century Futures pointed out that domestic supply expectations are trending toward loosening, with oil mill operating rates gradually recovering and soybean meal inventories continuously accumulating. The hog farming sector is experiencing deep losses, leading to a reduction in breeding sow inventories. Feed companies are purchasing on an as-needed basis, resulting in light trading volume, although forward basis trading has shown some improvement. Additionally, high soybean import costs provide underlying support. Soybean meal is expected to remain volatile under the influence of external markets. Subsequent attention should be paid to pressure from concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the situation in the Middle East, and weather conditions in U.S. soybean growing regions.
Zhonghui Futures analyzed that soybean meal rebounded on Friday. Limited crushing volume due to holiday factors last week may temporarily maintain a destocking trend for soybean meal, with overall market sentiment remaining acceptable. However, expectations for inventory accumulation from May arrivals persist. As soybean crushing operations resume this week, soybean meal is likely to enter an inventory accumulation phase. U.S. soybean planting is progressing smoothly with no current weather disruptions. The short-term fundamentals are bearish, with attention on crude oil market fluctuations, the actual pace of Brazilian soybean arrivals and crushing operations, the USDA's May report, and developments in U.S.-China meetings.
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