A prominent investor has made another move by adjusting his portfolio. Duan Yongping sold shares of a coal company and purchased stock in Kweichow Moutai.
On February 3rd, Duan Yongping posted: "That day I sold some CHINA SHENHUA (Hong Kong shares) to swap for some Moutai, I didn't expect the opportunity window to be so narrow. Actually, this trade was quite troublesome; I had to first sell the Hong Kong shares, then convert the proceeds to Renminbi before buying Moutai. Then, just as I started getting busy, the market closed. The 11:30 AM closing rule really causes me inconvenience."
From the transaction slip shared by Duan Yongping, it appears that on January 27th, he exchanged his CHINA SHENHUA H-shares for some Moutai.
Specifically, he sold 1.5 million shares of CHINA SHENHUA H-shares (01088.HK) in three separate transactions, each for 500,000 shares. The selling prices were HK$43.15, HK$43.28, and HK$43.43 per share, respectively, with each transaction's value approximately between HK$21.57 million and HK$21.71 million.
On January 27th, Duan Yongping purchased Kweichow Moutai shares in six separate transactions, totaling 77,194 shares. The purchase prices ranged from 1,329.72 to 1,331.00 yuan per share, representing a total investment of approximately 100 million yuan.
Furthermore, on January 21st, Duan Yongping had previously shared his investment activity; a screenshot at the time showed a pending order to buy 20,000 shares of Moutai at 1,365 yuan per share.
From a stock price perspective, Kweichow Moutai experienced a significant surge in volume and price on January 29th, with gains exceeding 12% over the past five trading sessions. With Moutai's latest share price at 1,524.18 yuan, Duan Yongping's purchase to "buy the dip" has already generated paper profits exceeding 10 million yuan.
Regarding the companies he holds, Duan Yongping shared his views on a social media platform. 1. The iMoutai platform is equivalent to creating one or two additional Moutai companies, and this will become very clear within a year or two. One ton equates to 2,000 bottles, so 100 tons is 200,000 bottles. I estimate Moutai produces roughly 250,000 bottles per day. After the New Year, many people will likely continue scrambling to buy it because they'll want to drink it again next year. Getting it early allows for longer storage, making the wine taste even better when consumed. iMoutai selling the 53-degree Feitian Moutai directly has genuinely resolved the company's most significant underlying concern. Citing official iMoutai data, Duan Yongping stated the platform intercepts 540 million instances of various abnormal behaviors monthly, which essentially indicates automated bots attempting purchases, making it very difficult for ordinary people to buy. Technically, there might be solutions, such as restricting the same individual (IP address) from purchasing more than once per month. The greatest benefit of iMoutai is actually letting people know where they can buy authentic liquor. The volume of fake Moutai is probably not as large as rumors suggest, but it poses a significant psychological threat to consumers, deterring a considerable number of people who want to try Moutai (including first-timers). Once iMoutai is established, the observed sales figures will more accurately reflect genuine consumption. Observing for one, two, or three years will clearly demonstrate iMoutai's impact. Both credibility and controllability are significantly higher. These two points (combatting counterfeits and direct-to-consumer marketization) are equivalent to creating one or two additional Moutai companies. This will become very clear within a year or two. 2. Duan Yongping believes Moutai should raise prices by 3%-5% annually. Regarding Moutai price increases, Duan Yongping expressed that if demand remains intense (at the current price level, I estimate it will be competitive year-round), Moutai should perhaps consider moderate annual price hikes, maybe around 5-8%? Moutai possesses pricing power, but previously, this ability was eroded by price differentials and counterfeit goods. In response, some netizens expressed concern that a 5% annual increase might lower the bottle-opening rate and exacerbate hoarding, suggesting a 1% increase would be more reasonable. Duan Yongping replied that 1% is too little; it should at least keep pace with inflation. Implementing moderate annual price increases is much better than raising prices substantially every few years. In the past, Moutai typically raised prices every several years; I think that approach seems more cumbersome. Determining the right amount requires exploration; perhaps an annual increase of 3%-5% might be more appropriate? Regardless, the increase should match inflation—too much or too little may be unsuitable. 3. The genuine demand for Moutai. A netizen commented: According to our recent data, not only are subscriptions on iMoutai strong, but sales of Feitian, premium, and vintage varieties through our distributors are also excellent. Demand has increased significantly, and the bottle-opening rate has also become particularly high. Duan Yongping: Not surprising, given the upcoming New Year. iMoutai's timing is excellent (though really, anytime is good), allowing everyone to see Moutai's true demand. It's not unreasonable for many families to consume one bottle of Moutai per year (although many buy by the case). iMoutai can solve the distribution channel issue. I believe the expansion of this consumer segment can fully compensate for (or even exceed) the consumption reduction caused by broader environmental changes. 4. Regarding Warren Buffett and Moutai. A netizen said: If I had unlimited funds, I would buy the entire Kweichow Moutai company. Duan Yongping: You say that as if they would actually be willing to sell. Buffett did indeed inquire back in the day, but they weren't selling. 5. A netizen asked: Buy now or wait for a drop and buy all at once? Duan Yongping: If you knew another drop was coming, of course you'd wait for it; otherwise, wouldn't you be foolish?! 6. On "Investing is simple, but not easy." The "not easy" part refers to the difficulty of truly understanding a business. The "simple" part means that understanding the business is the only thing that's truly important. What does it matter what others think? When a stock price falls and your heart fills with fear, it indicates you've invested in a company you don't understand. You currently don't seem to understand Moutai; if it drops another 10%, you might not be able to "persist." 7. A netizen inquired: "What's your view on Tencent's sudden plunge just now, and your thoughts on the recent 'Yuanbao' red envelope campaign? Are you still bullish on Tencent?" Duan Yongping replied: "A catastrophic drop of 3%? Don't call me teacher; you clearly have no intention of learning anything." 8. Regarding Tesla and Elon Musk. FSD is indeed very useful, and driving the Model Y is quite comfortable; choosing to drive my Tesla is now my first option. My personal view of Musk himself hasn't changed much; the aspects I disliked, I still dislike. However, his products are truly remarkable—FSD, Starlink, rocket reusability... Many things seemed like bluster when first announced, yet a decade later, they were actually accomplished. I feel I can set aside some reservations, try his products, and perhaps make some venture-capital-style investments; what if they succeed? "Investing" in Tesla is largely based on a "dream valuation," essentially speculative; everyone should proceed with caution. A netizen asked: With a current P/E ratio of 390, how should one interpret this market mispricing (excessive pessimism or optimism)? Duan Yongping replied: If the things he's talking about actually come to fruition, how could this valuation be a mistake? Interestingly, many things he said in the past have indeed been achieved, even if the timing didn't meet his own expectations. Having run a business myself, I understand that missing timelines is very normal, but ultimately achieving the goal is what's critical. Therefore, it's likely he is genuinely working on the things he says he is, and given his past successes, some people making "venture capital" style bets is reasonable.
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