NIO's William Li: No Vehicle Stays Hot Forever, Predicting Year-Long Bestsellers Is Extremely Challenging

At the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Development High-Level Forum (2026) held at the China National Convention Center Phase II in Beijing on April 11-12, the discussions centered on advancing the intelligent, green, integrated, and international development of new energy vehicles.

William Li, Founder of NIO Inc., highlighted the significant pressures facing the automotive industry, with profitability being a primary concern as volume growth does not necessarily translate to revenue growth.

Furthermore, the industry is grappling with pressures arising from rapid technological changes. For instance, the iteration cycle for smart electric vehicles has accelerated dramatically. In the past, internal combustion engine vehicles had update cycles of five to seven years, allowing for longer investment and cost amortization periods, which eased operational pressures.

Li explained that nowadays, advancements in intelligent chips or battery technology necessitate frequent vehicle updates, leading to a much faster iteration pace. This rapid cycle makes it extremely difficult to balance supply and demand effectively. Consequently, new models often face a "valley of death" effect; no product remains a top-seller indefinitely. He noted that it is exceptionally challenging for any new vehicle to maintain strong sales for an entire year, as sustained popularity is nearly impossible.

This situation results in a pattern where significant pent-up demand builds up during the launch phase, creating a spike in orders and media buzz. During the initial hot sales period, customers often face waiting lists. However, once production capacity ramps up and the supply chain stabilizes, demand frequently declines, leaving manufacturers with a shortage of new orders.

Li emphasized that this dynamic leads to substantial waste within the industry, where losses amounting to hundreds of millions per model are common. Ultimately, no party benefits—neither the manufacturer, the supply chain, nor the consumer—as resources are effectively squandered.