On Monday, February 9, spot silver traded near $79.50 during the European session. After a rapid decline from its previous high of $121.487, market sentiment has gradually shifted from panic to a wait-and-see approach, with prices entering a phase of narrow-range consolidation. However, this surface-level calm does not indicate that risks have subsided; instead, it resembles the quiet before a storm. The current price action reflects significant divergence between bullish and bearish forces, with capital failing to form a clear directional consensus. Although silver has paused its sharp decline, neither technical nor fundamental indicators have yet signaled a reversal. Analysis suggests the nature of this consolidation is the market awaiting new pricing catalysts, which are likely to emerge intensively in the coming week.
Unlike other commodities, silver, as a precious metal, possesses both safe-haven attributes and high sensitivity to changes in real interest rates. Due to its relatively smaller market size, capital flows can trigger more pronounced volatility, causing silver to rise more sharply than gold during uptrends and fall more deeply during downturns. Currently, the market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate an interest rate cutting cycle within the year, with pricing indicating cumulative cuts of 54 basis points. This expectation itself supports silver, as lower interest rates reduce real yields, enhancing the attractiveness of holding precious metals. However, this expectation is not unshakable. Should economic data show strength, the market could swiftly shift towards a "hawkish" stance, significantly weakening rate cut expectations and potentially triggering a new wave of selling in silver.
This week marks a period of密集 releases for US macroeconomic data, with the most closely watched being the Non-Farm Payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These two datasets will collectively shape new market judgments regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and serve as a critical juncture for determining whether silver can halt its decline and stabilize. If the NFP data indicates continued strength in the labor market, suggesting economic resilience remains, the Fed would have less urgency to cut rates soon. This would boost the US dollar and Treasury yield expectations, exerting clear downward pressure on silver. In such a scenario, the market might延续 the "sell on rallies" logic, potentially driving prices down again to test previous low areas, with volatility also rising accordingly.
Conversely, if the NFP data shows weakness, coupled with CPI indicating further cooling inflation, it could strengthen market expectations for the Fed to cut rates sooner or more aggressively. Some Fed officials have recently expressed concerns about labor market stability; if data confirms this trend, precious metals could receive a "macro tailwind." Given its higher elasticity, silver might lead a recovery rally, attempting to break upwards through the key resistance zone around $94.000. In that case, the current upper bound of the trading range could transform into a new starting point for an upward move, initiating a fresh round of valuation repair.
Other data releases this week also warrant attention. Tomorrow's US December Retail Sales data will reflect consumer demand strength; robust consumption could alleviate recession fears and reduce the necessity for rapid easing. The Employment Cost Index is closely linked to service inflation persistence; if wage growth remains high, the path for inflation decline will be more protracted, applying sustained valuation pressure on precious metals. Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims can serve as a high-frequency corroboration for the main NFP data; alignment in direction would further accelerate the market's adjustment pace for rate expectations.
From a technical perspective, spot silver has formed a back-and-forth tug-of-war around $79 since retreating from its highs, indicating some support exists in this area. The level around $94.000 above represents a clear resistance zone, where multiple rebound attempts have been thwarted. Only a sustained break and hold above this level could confirm the genuine start of a recovery rally.
Current technical indicators also reveal hesitant signals. The MACD remains in a weak state, with momentum yet to be repaired; the RSI hovers near 45.666, close to the neutral-to-weak range, suggesting the market lacks clear trend momentum. This implies that mere time-based digestion is insufficient for a reversal; an external catalyst is needed to break the deadlock—precisely the role of the upcoming core economic data. Once the data prompts a significant shift in rate expectations, whether towards a dovish or hawkish stance, it could引爆 volatility and force a directional price move.
In summary, determining whether "the worst is over" cannot rely solely on sentiment or intuition but should focus on the market's process of repricing the Fed's policy path. The current expectation of 54 basis points in cuts still holds considerable uncertainty. If the upcoming employment and inflation data both show strength, this expectation could be substantially scaled back, potentially subjecting silver to a new wave of concentrated retreat. Conversely, if the data combination presents weakness and moderation, the easing outlook would gain greater credibility, offering silver an opportunity to convert the current consolidation into a substantive rebound.
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