Abstract
National Storage Affiliates will report quarterly results Post Market on February 25, 2026, with forecasts pointing to a slight year-over-year revenue decline and stable EPS; analyst sentiment across major institutions is predominantly Hold, reflecting a cautious stance heading into the print.
Market Forecast
Forecasts for National Storage Affiliates this quarter indicate revenue of $183.06 million with a year-over-year decline of 1.40%, an EPS estimate of $0.17 down 2.46% year-over-year, and EBIT of $76.02 million up 9.35% year-over-year; gross margin and net margin forecasts are not available. Rent remains the dominant revenue driver at roughly 90% of the mix based on the prior quarter, and the current quarter’s projections imply modest top-line pressure despite expected operating efficiency. The most promising segment remains self-storage rent with last quarter revenue of $169.91 million, while total revenue is projected to decline 1.40% year-over-year, setting a cautious tone for segment performance.
Last Quarter Review
National Storage Affiliates reported revenue of $188.70 million (year-over-year -2.54%), a gross profit margin of 73.15%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $18.43 million with a net profit margin of 9.74%, and adjusted EPS of $0.17 (year-over-year -5.56%). A key highlight was the topline beat versus the prior estimate, with revenue surpassing expectations by 3.24%, while sequential net profit contracted by 5.36%. Self-storage rent revenue was $169.91 million, comprising approximately 90.04% of total revenue; overall revenue declined 2.54% year-over-year, underscoring the sensitivity of the consolidated result to rent trends.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Self-Storage Rent
Rent is the central element of National Storage Affiliates’ performance, contributing roughly nine-tenths of revenue in the prior quarter and continuing to anchor expectations for the upcoming print. With consolidated revenue forecast at $183.06 million, the implied year-over-year shift of -1.40% suggests modest pricing and/or volume pressures relative to the comparable period, even as EBIT is projected to expand 9.35% year-over-year to $76.02 million. The divergence between a slightly softer top line and stronger EBIT points to a focus on controllable costs and operating leverage, which can cushion earnings against modest revenue headwinds. The EPS forecast of $0.17, down 2.46% year-over-year, sets expectations for near-flat per-share performance relative to the prior quarter’s actual $0.17 while acknowledging the year-over-year comparison. Given rent’s outsized contribution, even minor changes in rate realization or occupancy can meaningfully influence revenue dollars and, by extension, reported EPS and margins. Sequential dynamics in net profit—last quarter’s quarter-on-quarter change was -5.36%—also frame investor expectations for the cadence of results through the current quarter. The operating narrative for rent therefore centers on maintaining revenue resilience while leveraging efficiency improvements to support EBIT growth, with investors watching how revenue trends translate into margin stability. As rent remains the main determinant of consolidated outcomes, the interplay of price realization and expense control will define whether EBIT growth can be sustained against the slight year-over-year decline in total revenue. Ultimately, rent performance will determine the degree to which EPS aligns with the $0.17 forecast and whether any variance—positive or negative—emerges meaningfully at the print.
Most Promising Segment: Self-Storage Rent
Self-storage rent is the most promising segment for National Storage Affiliates because of its scale, influence on consolidated outcomes, and the potential to convert operational discipline into margin and EBIT gains. Last quarter’s rent revenue of $169.91 million underscores that core operations remain the foundation of performance; with total revenue this quarter projected to decline 1.40% year-over-year, rent will set the tone for the aggregate result. The forecasted 9.35% year-over-year rise in EBIT suggests the company can deliver operating improvements even amid modest revenue pressures, and the segment’s sheer size allows those improvements to translate into more tangible consolidated effects. Investors will be scrutinizing how rent dynamics—through rate realization and occupancy patterns—interact with cost discipline to influence EBIT and EPS. While the EPS forecast of $0.17 implies a slight year-over-year decrease of 2.46%, EBIT expansion suggests incremental support to margins that can prevent earnings per share from weakening further. The segment’s contribution to margin stability is magnified by its revenue share; with rent representing roughly 90% of total revenue, incremental improvements in operational efficiency can offset small declines in rent dollars. Because last quarter’s revenue exceeded the estimate by 3.24%, market participants will consider whether rent performance retains a similar capacity to surprise to the upside. In this context, the rent segment’s prospects reflect the balance of scale-driven operating leverage and near-term revenue sensitivity, with the quarter’s outcome driven primarily by how these forces settle at period close. The trajectory of rent revenue relative to the $183.06 million consolidated forecast will determine whether EBIT growth translates into an upside to margins or merely sustains them. Ultimately, self-storage rent remains the linchpin of financial performance and the primary focus for investors assessing this quarter’s potential variance versus expectations.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Stock price sensitivity for National Storage Affiliates in this quarter is likely to be driven by realized revenue versus the $183.06 million forecast, margin behavior relative to last quarter’s gross margin of 73.15% and net margin of 9.74%, and the EPS print against the $0.17 estimate. The near-flat EPS profile compared to last quarter’s actual $0.17 raises the importance of whether EBIT’s 9.35% year-over-year growth manifests in better-than-expected margin dynamics at the consolidated level. If revenue deviates meaningfully from the forecast—especially within the rent segment—the EPS result may adjust accordingly given the segment’s large weight. Because last quarter’s revenue surprised positively by 3.24%, a repeat of topline overdelivery could bolster investor confidence and support the share price, particularly if margins hold or improve. Conversely, if the year-over-year decline in revenue of 1.40% is steeper than anticipated, the EPS estimate may come under pressure despite projected EBIT strength. Dividend continuity, including the recently communicated quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share, can anchor yield-based investor sentiment and moderate volatility around the print if earnings outcomes align with forecasts. Analyst stances, which are predominantly Hold, inform the sentiment context in which results will be received; a neutral outlook means short-term price reactions will hinge closely on realized numbers versus these expectations. The quarter’s narrative will therefore pivot on whether rent delivers stable-to-better revenue performance and whether operating leverage can elevate EBIT sufficiently to sustain or improve margins. With sequential net profit declining by 5.36% last quarter, investors will watch for signs of sequential stabilization or improvement as an additional gauge of momentum. All told, price action is likely to respond to the relative balance between a slight revenue decline and expected operating efficiency, especially given the central role of rent in both revenue and margin outcomes for the quarter.
Analyst Opinions
The majority view among institutions covering National Storage Affiliates in the recent period is cautious, with ratings concentrated in Hold or Neutral; the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions implied by explicit Buy versus non-Buy calls is approximately 0:4, indicating a predominance of non-bullish stances. UBS maintained a Neutral rating while trimming the price target to $29, reflecting a guarded perspective on near-term performance. Truist kept a Hold rating while raising its price target to $33, suggesting that while there may be incremental upside based on execution, the overall stance remains balanced rather than outright positive. Barclays maintained a Hold rating with a price target around $36, consistent with a wait-and-see approach ahead of the print. BMO Capital also maintained a Hold rating with a $37 price target, signaling an expectation for stable-to-moderate performance without a strong catalyst for re-rating. Taken together, these views point to an institutional consensus that awaits validation from core operational metrics—namely revenue in the self-storage rent segment and the extent to which EBIT growth translates into margin and EPS resilience. The cautious positioning is consistent with the current quarter’s forecast: slight year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS paired with positive EBIT growth, an outcome that depends on effective expense control and steady rent performance. Analysts appear to be framing the quarter around execution risk rather than aggressive growth, implying that a positive surprise would require either rent outperformance relative to the $183.06 million consolidated revenue forecast or more pronounced margin gains. The dividend continuity at $0.57 per share may support yield-based investors, but the consensus holds that earnings quality and the rent-driven revenue trajectory are more important for short-term price direction. In sum, the prevailing institutional stance is predominantly Hold, and the upcoming results will be judged against the interplay of a modest revenue decline, anticipated EBIT improvement, and the EPS print around $0.17; an upside skew would likely come from rent stability or improvements that allow margins to exceed last quarter’s levels while mitigating the year-over-year EPS dip.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments