On January 8th, an analysis of the latest gold market trends: On Thursday, during the European session, spot gold extended its decline, falling for a second consecutive day with an intraday drop of approximately 0.6%, currently trading around $4,429 per ounce. In the absence of major fundamental catalysts, this decline can be attributed to profit-taking by some investors ahead of Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls report. This key data will provide the market with more clues regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, thereby influencing US dollar demand and generating meaningful momentum for the non-yielding asset gold. Concurrently, the market is increasingly accepting the expectation that the Fed will implement two more rate cuts this year, which is exerting some pressure on the US dollar, which traded in a narrow range around 98.70 during Thursday's European session. Furthermore, the slightly deteriorating resilient global risk sentiment, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, may offer some support for the safe-haven asset gold.
From a technical perspective, the resonance support zone formed by the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA, 4429.50) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent uptrend at 4428 may provide some support for the gold price. If this level is effectively breached, it could trigger technical selling and drag the gold price down to the $4,400 psychological level. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator lines are below the signal line and in negative territory, with the histogram expanding negatively, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering near 40, is in a bearish stance and continues to decline, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. On the upside, any immediate rebound attempts will first encounter resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (4455). If this resistance is not effectively broken, any rally will likely be limited. Conversely, if the price can sustain a break above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market sentiment could stabilize. Overall, for today's short-term gold trading, the strategy recommended is primarily to buy on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance above is focused on the 4460-4480 zone, while key short-term support below is focused on the 4400-4380 zone.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends: During the Asian session on Thursday, international oil prices fluctuated slightly, trading around $56.40 per barrel, as investors digested the latest remarks from US President Donald Trump stating that the US had reached a deal to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude oil. The market widely believes this move will increase the crude supply scale for the world's largest oil consumer, thereby reinforcing expectations of ample global supply this year. Market surveys indicate that the relevant arrangement between Washington and Caracas may initially require rerouting tankers originally destined for Asian countries. Since Trump imposed an export blockade in mid-December, millions of barrels of Venezuelan crude have been stranded in tankers and storage facilities, unable to enter the international market.
From a technical analysis perspective on the daily chart, oil prices have entered a consolidation phase after touching near 54.80, with the K-line printing a large bearish candlestick. The moving average system is suppressing the price in a bearish alignment, and the medium-term objective trend direction is downward. Currently, both the primary and secondary subjective trend directions for crude oil remain downward. According to the principle of trend alternation, the medium-term downward rhythm for crude oil is expected to persist. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, the price has made a secondary decline, creating a new low, although the magnitude of the decline has slowed compared to the previous trading day. The moving average system remains in a bearish alignment, and the short-term objective trend direction continues to point downward. The MACD indicator is intertwined below the zero line, with bearish momentum holding the advantage. It is anticipated that after a minor rebound during the day, crude oil prices still face the risk of continuing their decline. Overall, for today's crude oil trading, the recommended strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance above is focused on the 57.5-58.5 zone, while key short-term support below is focused on the 55.0-54.0 zone.
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