外链屏蔽简史：互联网巨头间的高墙为何而建？

市值榜2021-09-17

互联网公司之间的墙，终于要拆了。 9月17日，根据相关部门要求，是各大平台按标准解除屏蔽大限的最后一天，否则将被依法采取处置措施。 9月9日，工信部有关业务部门召开了“屏蔽网址链接问题行政指导会”，要求限期内各平台必须按标准解除屏蔽。更早的时候，工信部就表态决定开展互联网行业专项整治行动，恶意屏蔽网址链接和干扰其他企业产品或服务运行等问题是重点整治对象。开放、平等、分享，是互联网一度推崇的精神...

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Comments

hhyw
2021-09-20
hhyw
當然是爲了賺更多消費者的話錢??
- 滚股怪:
  Ok
CKWAI
2021-09-20
CKWAI
開，回覆和點贊，謝謝
- hhyw:
  好
- CKWAI:
  谢谢
神话者
2021-09-20
神话者
[微笑]
小虎和小孩
2021-09-20
小虎和小孩
競爭流量
Youn7276
2021-09-20
Youn7276
閱
云里梦里飞
2021-09-19
云里梦里飞
任務[笑哭]
- 云里梦里飞:
  加油
- CodyTang:
  任务

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6时，苹果引入自家地图，拿掉了谷歌地图。后来，苹果索性将浏览器的默认搜索引擎从Google变成Safari。\n较真起来，这样的例子不胜枚举，互联网巨头间的筑墙史，构成了半部互联网史。\n02、超级App时代，彼此渗透\n在早期的互联网世界，彼此筑墙还是一件罕见的事，为什么后来逐渐多了起来？这得先从互联网行业的属性来理解。\n互联网的本质是平台经济，平台经济的本质是双边市场。\n菜市场、超市、商场，都是典型的传统双边市场，双边市场有一个基本结构：\n1.群体A——双边市场经营者B——群体C\n2.群体A与群体C有连接的需要\n（在这里用“群体”“连接”，而不是卖方、买方、交易，是因为并不是所有的双边市场都是买卖关系）\n物理因素决定了，传统双边市场很难达到垄断的规模，甚至很难达到大规模。原因在于，交叉网络外部性，是边际递减的。\n比如，商场运营者将商户从20家增加到50家，顾客享受的好处很大，不仅品类丰富，同类商家还可能因为竞争价格更优惠。但商户增加到200家，顾客很难逛完。同时，容纳200家商户的商场，成本会增加。\n互联网给双边市场崛起提供了契机。\n对双边经济来说，互联网最重要的力量是将实物与信息分离。卖方将商品信息发布到平台上，买方通过浏览信息挑选；交易从一手交钱一手交货变成了先交易信息再交割实物。\n这个简单的变化，打破了被物理空间锁死的双边市场规模上限。一个人在现实中最多只能逛二十个摊位，在互联网上却可以浏览五十个；现实中增加一个摊位需要很大成本，在互联网上增加一个商家成本却很低。\n信息存储与传递的效率都极大地提高了，这和双边市场自然扩张的属性一拍即合，互联网平台经济迅速爆发。\n更进一步，原本只存在理论上的双边市场演化，在互联网上变成了现实。根据双边市场的结构与规律，B将相互关联的A与C连接在一起，B通过增加A的数量使得A与C同时增加而获利。\n在产业链上，A还与其上游的A1相关，C与其下游的C1相关，那么聚集了A与C的B，很容易吸引A1或C1，再次建立一个双边市场。\n传统经济中这很难实现，但在互联网上这已经成了常态。\n所以我们看到，如今互联网巨头，早已不是那个泾渭分明的江湖。阿里巴巴已经不是早期的电商，在电商平台外，发展支付、供应链金融、物流；腾讯也不是只做社交，在发展游戏、电商、视频等社交衍生的周边业务；百度不再局限于搜索，在地图、视频等业务上多点开花；字节除了做内容，还在积极布局电商、社交等业务。\n现在，互联网巨头都喜欢讲流量、生态，然后构筑起自己的超级App，不论是吃喝玩乐，还是借钱、交友，本质就是双边市场的交叉网络外部性，以及在产业链上的延伸。\n巨头间彼此的业务渗透、冲突难以避免，但谁也不想别人在自己的地盘抢用户。于是，大家纷纷起高墙。\n03、守城是存量时代第一要义\n在过去的二十多年中，中国互联网的发展，在很大程度上得益于人口红利。\n1997年，中国上网用户数才62万，3年后的2000年，中国上网用户数上升到890万。2005年，中国网民首次突破1亿，达到1.03亿人。到2020年底，中国网民规模达到9.89亿人。\n这在任何一个国家都是难以企及的数据。也因此，腾讯、阿里、美团等公司可以挤进世界互联网巨头行列。\n当下，除去老人和小孩，几乎人人都是网民，中国互联网行业从增量时代迈向存量时代，共同面临如何寻求增量的问题。\n以微信为例，2018 年月活跃用户数已达到 10.4 亿人，3年过后，微信及Wechat用户合并月活12.51亿，已经没有多大增长空间。\n再比如阿里，到2021年6月，其中国零售市场移动月活跃用户数达到了9.39亿，已经越来越逼近天花板。\n用户增长见顶后，互联网大厂们想了很多办法，比如攻占下沉市场、出海，更多的是在想办法提高用户使用App的时间，实现流量内部流转。\n可每个人一天的时间只有 24 小时，除去睡觉、工作、学习，所剩时间已不多。有调查数据显示，2019年，中国成年国民每天接触手机时长为100.41分钟，2020年为100.75分钟，增长几乎停滞。\n即便在这100分钟里，用户还会被各种视频、游戏、购物、短文等吸引注意力。\n在越来越内卷的赛道里，彼此关系更多是零和博弈，即一方的收益必然意味着另一方的损失，博弈各方的收益和损失相加总和永远为零，双方不存在合作的可能。\n近年来，字节和腾讯在争夺用户时长上越来越激烈，仅在2018年，字节系用户总时长占比从2017年的3.9%跃升到了2018年的10.1%，同比增加6.2%，而腾讯系从2017年的54.3%下降到了47.7%，同比下跌6.6%。\n在这种情况下，攻城者更加激进，守城者也会异常敏感。而高墙，是最为行之有效的方法。\n04、拆墙之后\n不管是构建超级App，还是为了用户留存时长，在互联网早期扩张阶段，筑墙无可厚非，毕竟残酷性才是商业的本质。\n随着规模的扩大，双边市场经营者寡头化，对其他所有参与者的损害也具备了现实可能性。\n第一，是B端。市场份额越来越多地被大公司锁死，留给互联网创业公司更少的空间，导致用户获取成本激增，互联网创业公司需要比以往任何时候，都需要对销售、管理及行政投入更多的资金来维持增长。\n第二，是C端。当市场规模不再扩大，市场寡头都有继续获取利润的渴望，他们会从其他参与者手中攫取利润。比如用高墙拦住用户，让各APP互联互通越来越不可能，进而失去用户体验。\n这无论对消费者，还是真正有创造力的生产者，无疑都是一种伤害。\n经济的本质与规律从不会改变。十年前国家对互联网经济无限宽容，是因为它还没有到达自身的极限。极限之前，对社会经济产生积极作用，极限之后，只有阻碍与伤害。此时迎来的就是监管与疏导。\n这与1890年美国反垄断浪潮时，诞生了世界上最早的反垄断法《谢尔曼法》如出一辙。\n当固有的藩篱被打破，流量开始自由流动，对互联网巨头也形成新的挑战。\n首先，互联互通后，巨头自身的流量势必会被分流，比如微信用户可能因朋友圈分享抖音视频，进而跳转到抖音，刷抖音时也可能刷到淘宝链接，进而在淘宝成交。\n在这种情况下，相比抖音，腾讯的视频号可能失去优势，相比淘宝天猫，抖音电商可能失去优势，相比腾讯，阿里字节做社交可能更为困难。\n此前的流量优势被抹平，巨头们跨界尝试会变得更加艰难，一种大概率现象是大而全的超级App不再是巨头的目标，逐渐转向各自擅长领域深耕，想办法为用户创造更多价值，比如腾讯重社交、阿里重交易、字节重娱乐。\n其次，开放外部链接后，各个平台上的营销广告、网络诈骗、隐私泄露等问题会不同程度爆发。反灰黑产成为各个平台更加紧迫的任务，这是一项需要长期投入财力和人力的工程。\n比如，每逢“双11”购物节，都会有大量灰黑产潜入平台。2016年，对抗灰黑产被阿里提到关系到整个“双11”生死存亡的层面。经过多年沉淀，逐渐研发出霸下和MTEE两个系统，可以实现自动化对抗灰黑产。\n修筑防灰黑产的墙，比如修筑屏蔽外链的墙要更难。\n互联网巨头们的机遇和挑战才刚刚开始，可以预见的是，在开放外链的过程中，各方博弈会持续，竞争方式会改变，巨头间的格局会被重塑。同时，新的互联网公司又会比之前多了一丝机会。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":887424707,"gmtCreate":1632095291709,"gmtModify":1676530698154,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"當然是爲了賺更多消費者的話錢??","listText":"當然是爲了賺更多消費者的話錢??","text":"當然是爲了賺更多消費者的話錢??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887424707","repostId":1194076700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5928043,"gmtCreate":1632098916282,"gmtModify":1663234128355,"authorId":4091089381144950,"author":{"id":4091089381144950,"idStr":"4091089381144950","authorId":4091089381144950,"name":"滚股怪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b67621b4133ca0db91bff9766152a448","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":887424707,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":887413406,"gmtCreate":1632092822805,"gmtModify":1676530696965,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576460381606543","authorIdStr":"3576460381606543"},"htmlText":"開，回覆和點贊，謝謝","listText":"開，回覆和點贊，謝謝","text":"開，回覆和點贊，謝謝","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887413406","repostId":1194076700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5926871,"gmtCreate":1632095220372,"gmtModify":1663234126825,"authorId":3561544476596136,"author":{"id":3561544476596136,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorId":3561544476596136,"name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary 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