With the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision looming this week, the selloff in US Treasuries has intensified sharply. On Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5.35 basis points to 5.041%, while the 30-year yield rose 5.1 basis points to 5.399%, both hitting their highest levels since 2007. Meanwhile, the 20-year Treasury yield advanced 5.3 basis points to 5.441%, marking its strongest reading since issuance resumed in 2020.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now price in a greater than 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting. Additionally, the ongoing surge in international oil prices has become a key driver of renewed inflation concerns, creating a macro environment that remains largely bearish for precious metals.
Futures Trading and Volume Data
On September 15, 2026, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 924.80 yuan per gram and closed at 929.76 yuan per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.55% from the previous trading day's close. Trading volume reached 41,087 lots, with open interest at 129,725 lots. During the evening session, the contract opened at 928.68 yuan and settled at 932.02 yuan, gaining 0.24% from the afternoon close.
For silver, the main Shanghai futures contract opened at 15,271.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 15,415.00 yuan, down 0.51% from the prior close. Volume stood at 331,620 lots, with open interest at 161,625 lots. In the evening session, silver futures opened at 15,563 yuan and closed at 15,600 yuan, surging 1.20% from the afternoon settlement.
Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring
As of September 15, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.97%, essentially unchanged from the prior session. The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries stood at 0.32%, narrowing by 6 basis points day-on-day.
Exchange Position and Volume Changes
For the Au2610 gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, long positions increased by 3 lots, while short positions declined by 3 lots compared with the previous session. Total gold trading volume across all contracts reached 343,598 lots, down 16.21% from the prior day. In the silver market, the Ag2610 contract saw long positions fall by 44 lots, while short positions added 2 lots. Aggregate silver volume dropped 21.10% to 667,445 lots.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings
In the ETF space, gold holdings rose to 1,050.277 tonnes, an increase of 2.852 tonnes from the previous session. Silver ETF holdings, however, decreased by 25.29 tonnes to 15,266.31 tonnes.
Arbitrage and Valuation Tracking
On the spot-futures basis, the domestic gold premium stood at -0.82 yuan per gram, while the silver premium registered -34.65 yuan per kilogram. The gold-to-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 60.32, little changed from the prior close, while the offshore ratio came in at 68.25, up 1.81% day-on-day.
Fundamental Overview
At the Shanghai Gold Exchange, T+D market turnover for gold reached 52,108 kilograms, up 9.89% from the prior session, while silver turnover contracted 24.12% to 307,664 kilograms. Gold delivery stood at 11,872 kilograms, with silver delivery at 44,280 kilograms.
Strategy Recommendations
Gold: Neutral. The sustained Treasury selloff and climbing yields, combined with the impending Fed decision, paint a bearish macro backdrop. Risk sentiment appears to be building, which could temper investment demand for gold. Consequently, prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term, with the Au2610 contract likely to oscillate between 920 yuan and 950 yuan per gram.
Silver: Neutral. Silver continues to mirror gold's fundamentals, with prices expected to trade in a sideways pattern. The Ag2610 contract is projected to fluctuate within a band of 15,000 yuan to 16,000 yuan per kilogram.
Arbitrage: Hold off. Options: Hold off.
Risks: Overseas liquidity risks and continued speculative position unwinding remain key downside threats.
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