China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that current market expectations for next year's auto stimulus policies and production/sales volumes remain weak, with cyclical attributes softening. However, expectations may have bottomed, while tech-driven growth areas like robotics and autonomous driving remain core themes.
The robotics sector is currently in a phase of consolidation, with industry trends approaching the 0-to-1 inflection point. Strategic positioning in high-probability and tech-upgrading segments is recommended. Key takeaways include:
**Passenger Vehicles**: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized domestic demand expansion and a robust domestic market, confirming the extension of national subsidies to 2026. Despite weaker sequential sales from leading automakers and unmet year-end "tail effect" expectations, the firm remains bullish on premium domestic brands, strong product cycles, and leading NEV exporters.
**Robotics**: The sector has rebounded since late November, driven by Tesla supply chain orders (hundred-unit scale) and U.S. humanoid robot policy support. GaN tech applications have also drawn attention. Upcoming catalysts include December order confirmations, Gen3 finalization in Q1 2025, small-batch production in Q2, and mass production in H2. Unitree’s IPO filing may further boost sentiment.
**Commercial Vehicles**: November heavy truck sales rose 65% YoY (+7% MoM), while bus sales grew 25% YoY (+12% MoM), with exports up 26% YoY. As undervalued high-dividend assets, commercial vehicles—especially buses and motorcycles—show strong growth potential. Heavy-duty engine suppliers like Weichai Power benefit from AIDC volume expansion and valuation re-rating.
Recommended portfolio: Hengbo Co., Weichai Power, Yutong Bus, Jianghuai Automobile, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, and Longsheng Technology.
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