In the technical analysis framework of capital markets, an extreme "cliff-like" plunge is often not the end of the story but may mark the beginning of a meticulously calculated restructuring of order. VIGONVITA-B (02630) experienced a vertical drop from HK$97 to HK$51, a nearly 50% decline, yet instead of entering a prolonged downtrend, it swiftly formed a classic double W-bottom pattern with clear structure and volume-price coordination, ultimately launching a smooth upward rally. Below, we delve beyond the surface of the candlestick chart and trading volume to analyze the underlying logic of major players and the subtle shifts in market sentiment.
**Phase 1: Panic Selling and Liquidity Crisis** From November 6 to 12, the newly listed VIGONVITA-B underwent an extreme stress test. Its stock price plummeted from a high of HK$97 to HK$51 in just five trading days, a cumulative drop of 44.37%, nearly halving its value. Notably, even at the low of HK$51, the price remained about 70% above the IPO price of HK$33.37, indicating that the plunge did not breach the core valuation anchor but rather squeezed out irrational post-listing bubbles. With a limited free float (only one-tenth of shares), heavy selling overwhelmed limited active buying. Total turnover of 7.862 million lots and a 94.9% bearish volume ratio, alongside over 10% turnover, suggested a near-complete reshuffling of floating shares—laying the groundwork for new players to enter.
**Phase 2: Double W-Bottom Formation and Shift in Sentiment** From November 13 to 21, the stock avoided further declines and instead rebounded, forming the right leg of a double W-bottom. The right bottom at HK$52.55 was higher than the left at HK$51, with subsequent pullbacks holding above this level, confirming its validity. Bullish volume (974,200 lots) surpassed bearish volume (846,400 lots) for the first time since the crash, signaling a fundamental shift in market sentiment. The average price of HK$65.094, midway between the left bottom (HK$51) and potential neckline (HK$74), indicated balanced accumulation. This phase marked the completion of the double W-bottom, setting the stage for a breakout.
**Phase 3: Breakout Rally and Trend Reinforcement** From November 24 to December 2, the stock surged 31.42% in a rare "seven consecutive bullish sessions," breaking past the HK$74 neckline. The rally, with minimal 1.13% turnover, revealed high筹码锁定 (lock-up) and strong control by major players. The breakout attracted technical buyers, creating positive feedback and establishing a safety margin above the estimated cost zone (HK$62–68).
**Phase 4: Healthy Consolidation and Technical Confirmation** From December 3 to 11, the stock retraced 7.80% from its peak of HK$79.3 to HK$70.5, a mild pullback relative to the prior rally. Trading volume expanded slightly to 962,400 lots, reflecting profit-taking but no panic selling. The hold above HK$70 and the neckline confirmed the breakout’s validity, with support levels now elevated. This consolidation tested market conviction, cleared short-term浮筹 (floating筹码), and allowed主力 (major players) to refine holdings and solidify new support.
In summary, VIGONVITA-B’s early extreme volatility painted a full picture of market repricing,博弈 (gaming), and recovery: a "mountain-crashing drop" that dismantled泡沫 (bubbles) became the foundation for a new trend, while筹码 reshuffling paved the way for fresh capital inflows. The plunge from HK$97 to HK$51 tested持股结构 (shareholding structure) and market psychology, while the double W-bottom’s completion heralded value reassessment and trend renewal.
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