The allied nations of the United States and Israel are intensifying strikes on Iranian infrastructure and planning attacks on its energy facilities. Videos circulating on social media on Saturday showed thick smoke billowing over a plant in Iran's Mahshar petrochemical zone following a reported Israeli airstrike. TEL AVIV — The US and Israel have identified a series of targets within Iran aimed at severely damaging the country's economy, intending to make the regime's recovery from this war a protracted and painful process. An Israeli official revealed that Israel is awaiting authorization from Washington this week to commence strikes on Iranian energy facilities, a move that could significantly impact the production capacity of this major global oil and gas producer. In an interview on Sunday, President Trump stated that the US is prepared to destroy all of Iran's bridges and power plants, causing damage that would take Iran "20 years to rebuild, if they're lucky and the country still exists." In recent days, the US and Israel have already begun increasing attacks on non-energy targets, including Iran's largest steel plant, petrochemical facilities, and a landmark bridge. Avner Golov, a former Israeli national security official and current vice president of the advisory firm MIND Israel, commented, "They are sending a signal: we are resolute, and if Iran continues to refuse to agree to end the war, its economy will pay an increasingly high price." Attacking civilian infrastructure may violate international law. US and Israeli officials, however, contend that these targets are legitimate as they produce materials used by the Iranian military. Shifting the focus of attacks to infrastructure could transform this conflict into a war of economic attrition. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran has vowed to escalate attacks on civilian infrastructure in Israel and Persian Gulf nations if Trump follows through on his threats. Iran has already retaliated for attacks on its own infrastructure by striking petrochemical facilities in Bahrain and Abu Dhabi, as well as targeting oil, desalination, and power infrastructure in Kuwait. On Sunday, Iran attacked the Neot Hovav industrial area in southern Israel, which houses numerous factories. Israeli authorities reported that several days prior, debris from an Iranian missile struck Israel's largest oil refinery in Haifa, although production was not interrupted. Following Trump's threats, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X on Sunday, "Your reckless actions are dragging America into a living hell for every family, and the entire region will be engulfed in flames simply because you insist on following Netanyahu's orders."
Non-energy targets struck by the US and Israel in recent days have included this landmark bridge. Iran's attacks on energy facilities in the Gulf region could have long-term effects on global energy prices. Oil prices have already risen to their highest levels since 2022, and with tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf, there is a continued risk of further price increases. Officials familiar with the matter stated that mediators are intensifying efforts to bring Iran and the US back to the negotiating table, but so far without success. Iran has rejected proposals for a temporary ceasefire in exchange for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, suggested that Iran currently appears willing to endure greater economic losses as long as it can continue to inflict significant damage on its opponents. Zimmt stated, "They are prepared to take the risk." Robin Mills, CEO of the Dubai-based consulting firm Qamar Energy, pointed out that even if Iran relinquishes control of the Strait of Hormuz, the destruction of petrochemical and other energy facilities would prevent the shipment of goods from the Gulf region. Mills said, "Even if shipping returns to normal, the supply of approximately 5 million barrels per day of refined products from the Gulf region would be disrupted for months, or longer." The Iranian economy, already struggling under years of Western sanctions targeting its nuclear program, ballistic missile development, and support for groups designated as terrorist organizations by the US, is the new focus for the US and Israel. Iranian citizens report that the war has driven domestic economic activity to new lows. In interviews, several Iranians stated that factories have shut down following bombings, food prices have soared, and unemployment has risen. They fear that this war will not succeed in overthrowing the Islamic regime—which suppressed thousands of protesters earlier this year—but will only harm ordinary citizens, whom Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have called upon to overthrow the government.
Smoke and flames rose after an attack on Iran's South Pars gas field in Bushehr province. The South Pars gas field is one of the core economic targets in Iran that has already been attacked. Israeli strikes on Iranian economic facilities have primarily targeted the steel, petrochemical, and pharmaceutical industries, which generate billions of dollars in annual revenue for Iran. On Saturday, Israel attacked the core Mahshar petrochemical complex in Iran, with the military stating the facility produces and exports chemical materials for Iran's armed forces. Last week, Iranian state media reported an attack on the Tabriz petrochemical plant. Neil Quilliam, an energy expert at the UK think tank Chatham House, noted that the petrochemical industry is a pillar of the Iranian economy, contributing approximately 25% of total non-oil export revenue. Quilliam explained that unlike oil, which is transported via large tankers and is easily monitored and sanctioned, petrochemical products can be sold to private buyers in various locations, including Asia and Turkey, making them a vital source of foreign currency for Iran. Quilliam stated, "These facilities provide essential raw materials for industries such as textiles, auto parts, and packaging. Attacks on them will create manufacturing bottlenecks, increased costs, and large-scale unemployment." Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday that Iran's petrochemical industry has generated around $18 billion in revenue for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps over the past two years. Last week, Israel struck the core of Iran's steel industry, including the Khuzestan Steel Company in Ahvaz and the Mobarakeh Steel Company in Isfahan, both among the largest steel production bases in the region. A 2024 US Treasury Department statement regarding Khuzestan Steel stated that Iran's metals industry generates billions of dollars in annual revenue, a significant portion from steel exports. Both steel plants are under US sanctions due to their links to Iranian security agencies. On Tuesday, the Israeli military stated it attacked the Tofigh Daru pharmaceutical plant in Tehran. Iran has also gained some economic benefits from the war: it continues to export crude oil at high prices when other nations cannot; the US administration has eased oil export exemptions, allowing India to purchase oil from Iran for the first time in years; and Iran collects transit fees from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Zimmt indicated that these gains are far outweighed by the damage the war has inflicted on the Iranian economy.
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