According to a research report by Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. (GTHT), the power shortage issue in the U.S. is increasingly becoming a clear and certain reality, with the gap expected to widen before 2030, presenting a well-defined investment logic for related industrial chains. The firm emphasizes the need for systematic power supply-side solutions, primarily focusing on natural gas (including CCGT and OCGT small turbines) and renewable energy with storage, while coal power remains a backup option to address potential shortfalls during implementation.
GTHT is bullish on the natural gas turbine industry chain, grid upgrade sector, energy storage industry chain, and SOFC (solid oxide fuel cell) industry chain, as well as coal power. For A-shares, the firm recommends leading companies with growth potential over the next five years.
Key insights from GTHT include:
**The Impossible Trinity of the U.S. Power System Under AI Demand Surge** The explosive growth in electricity demand driven by AI has created a zero-sum game among the three core objectives of the U.S. power system: reliability (ensuring grid safety), decarbonization, and the speed and cost requirements of data center clients. With former President Trump likely returning to office in 2025, his policy agenda—focused on lowering household costs (including electricity) and reinforcing U.S. energy dominance (by rolling back renewable energy subsidies and reviving cheap fossil fuels)—clearly signals a short- to medium-term abandonment of decarbonization goals in favor of bolstering AI leadership and ensuring domestic energy security.
**All for AI: A Systematic, Multi-Energy Solution Required** The U.S. energy system has shifted toward natural gas and renewables, with coal accounting for less than 15%. However, aging grid infrastructure—exceeding its 40-year average lifespan—lacks sufficient baseload capacity to meet peak demand growth. New construction is unlikely to keep pace with rapidly rising demand, leading to regional grid fragmentation in the near term. Given the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) escalating warnings about grid reliability, GTHT argues that solving the power shortage requires a multi-source, coordinated approach rather than reliance on any single energy type.
**U.S. Power Supply Balance by 2030: Gas, Renewables, and Coal as Stabilizer** Considering grid reliability, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and construction timelines, GTHT projects the following supply mix by 2030: 1. **Renewables + Storage**: Contributing ~40% of new supply, though large-scale, long-duration storage must overcome economic hurdles. 2. **Natural Gas**: The backbone for grid reliability and supply, though CCGT deployment may lag due to upstream bottlenecks; small turbines could partially fill the gap. 3. **SOFC & Emerging Tech**: Promising but limited in scale. 4. **Nuclear**: Large-scale adoption unlikely before 2032. 5. **Coal**: Retirements delayed; while output may decline, coal will act as a stabilizer for the energy system.
**Risks**: Lower-than-expected U.S. electricity demand growth or faster-than-anticipated SOFC advancements.
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