Abstract
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. will report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026 Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to lower year-over-year revenue but meaningfully higher earnings metrics; this preview distills the latest quarterly run-rate, estimates, and institutional views.
Market Forecast
Current-quarter projections indicate revenue of 116.33 million, down 3.84% year over year, alongside estimated EPS of 0.12 with 97.50% year-over-year growth and EBIT of 7.96 million with 112.44% year-over-year growth; explicit guidance on gross margin and net margin for the quarter has not been provided. The main business is expected to remain anchored by the core coconut water franchise, with analysts looking for resilient velocity and pricing to underpin earnings despite a lighter top line. The most promising segment is the flagship Vita Coco coconut water brand, which delivered 154.38 million last quarter and accounted for 84.68% of sales, as the company’s total revenue rose 37.17% year over year in the period, highlighting momentum into year-end.
Last Quarter Review
The Vita Coco Company, Inc. reported last quarter revenue of 182.31 million, a gross profit margin of 37.66%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 24.00 million, a net profit margin of 13.17%, and adjusted EPS of 0.40 with 25.00% year-over-year growth, while total revenue advanced 37.17% year over year. A notable highlight was the sequential improvement in profitability, with net profit rising 4.78% quarter on quarter, supported by strong pricing and mix and disciplined cost management. Main business highlights included the flagship Vita Coco coconut water brand generating 154.38 million in revenue and comprising 84.68% of sales, while total company revenue expanded 37.17% year over year, underscoring broad demand strength; Private Label contributed 22.50 million and Other contributed 5.44 million.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core Brand Performance and Revenue Drivers
The core coconut water franchise is positioned to carry the quarter, even as the forecast calls for a 3.84% year-over-year decline in revenue to 116.33 million. The estimate for EPS at 0.12 and EBIT at 7.96 million implies solid earnings resilience, with year-over-year growth of 97.50% for EPS and 112.44% for EBIT, suggesting margin defense and operating leverage despite a softer top line. This dynamic typically reflects a combination of pricing discipline, favorable product mix, and improvements in cost of goods, consistent with the last quarter’s gross margin of 37.66% and net margin of 13.17%. The sequential lift in net profit of 4.78% last quarter provides context: profitability is trending upward even as the company laps a strong comparator and navigates seasonal volume normalization in the current quarter. Against that backdrop, investors will be watching whether the brand can sustain shelf velocity and promotional effectiveness without eroding margin gains, especially in the face of potential input cost variability and retail channel mix effects. The bridge from last quarter’s outsized revenue growth to this quarter’s expected top-line moderation places more emphasis on discipline across trade spend, logistics, and pack-price architecture to maintain earnings thrust.
Most Promising Business Segment and Strategic Initiatives
The flagship Vita Coco coconut water segment, which delivered 154.38 million last quarter and represented 84.68% of total sales, remains the central growth engine in both domestic and international markets. With company-level revenue up 37.17% year over year last quarter, the scale achieved by the core brand points to strong underlying demand and effective execution across distribution and retail partners. Into the current quarter, the momentum is being supported by brand-building actions, including the recently announced global ambassador partnership with a high-profile U.S. Men’s National Team player, which is designed to increase awareness and connect the brand with performance hydration use occasions. This kind of marketing activation often complements the product’s availability and shelf presence, underpinning velocity without overreliance on discounting, a balance that matters for maintaining margin stability. The near-term commercial focus likely remains on widening category penetration and optimizing assortment, with particular attention to pack sizes and multipacks that align with consumer preferences in large-format retail channels. With the company preparing for investor engagements around the reporting window, expectations center on sustained brand vitality and incremental gains from targeted campaigns, even if revenue normalization dampens headline growth this quarter.
Key Stock Price Drivers in the Current Quarter
The stock price reaction will be most sensitive to the interplay between earnings strength and top-line trajectory, specifically whether the company delivers on the forecasted EPS growth of 97.50% year over year despite a 3.84% revenue decline. Margin quality is paramount: last quarter’s 37.66% gross margin and 13.17% net margin set a high bar, and investors will be parsing commentary on cost inputs and freight, promotional cadence, and mix to assess sustainability. Management’s ability to show that operational efficiencies and pricing strategies can buffer seasonal or category variability would likely be viewed constructively, especially given the 112.44% year-over-year forecasted growth for EBIT. Sequential performance signals also matter; with net profit up 4.78% quarter over quarter last quarter, the market will look for further confirmation of margin progression and cash generation. Finally, updates on brand initiatives and customer relationships—particularly any indications of new placements, expanded distribution, or successful marketing tie-ins—can influence sentiment by pointing to future volume stabilization or reacceleration beyond the quarter, thereby informing forward multiples.
Analyst Opinions
The ratio of bullish versus bearish opinions skews strongly positive, with three recent Buy views and no bearish calls; the majority stance is bullish. Wells Fargo maintained a Buy rating with a 50.00 price target, citing durable brand strength and earnings resilience even as near-term revenue moderates. Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy with a 47.00 price target, emphasizing the company’s attractive earnings trajectory and the potential for margin preservation through pricing, mix, and disciplined cost control. Craig-Hallum also maintained a Buy, highlighting operational execution and the franchise’s capacity to sustain profitability into a seasonally softer period. The collective thrust of these views centers on an expectation that earnings power can outpace volume normalization, supported by last quarter’s margin metrics and the current quarter’s projected EPS and EBIT growth. Analysts appear focused on whether management can translate brand momentum and operational advantages into consistent earnings, a theme reinforced by last quarter’s revenue outperformance versus estimates and the current guidance indicating robust year-over-year earnings expansion. In-depth discussions from these institutions point to confidence in the company’s ability to manage trade dynamics and input costs, a key determinant of valuation through the next prints. As a result, the bullish majority views the setup as one where a modest decline in revenue is offset by comprehensive margin and profit execution, aligning the stock with earnings-led support into and through the February 18, 2026 report.
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