Title
Earning Preview: Upwork Inc. this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 9.17%, and institutional views are bullish
Abstract
Upwork Inc. will release fourth-quarter results on February 09, 2026 Post Market; investors will assess whether momentum in Marketplace and Enterprise persists as management’s AI-led strategy supports revenue, profitability, and engagement while consensus anticipates year-over-year gains in revenue, EPS, and EBIT.
Market Forecast
Consensus indicates Upwork Inc. is expected to report fourth-quarter revenue of USD 197.52 million, adjusted EPS of USD 0.31, and EBIT of USD 41.49 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of 9.17%, 29.53%, and 14.11%, respectively. The Marketplace segment is expected to remain the core growth engine as AI-led features and engagement improvements sustain monetization and client productivity, with disciplined spending underpinning operating leverage. Enterprise is positioned to contribute more visibly, posting USD 27.16 million last quarter and showing an improving pipeline tied to AI-powered workflows and collaboration tools; year-over-year details were not disclosed.
Last Quarter Review
Upwork Inc. delivered a strong third quarter with revenue of USD 201.73 million, a gross profit margin of 77.28%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 29.34 million, a net profit margin of 14.54%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.36, up 24.14% year over year. The company beat on both the top and bottom lines, reporting EBIT of USD 55.15 million, a return to positive year-over-year GSV growth, and a sequential net profit change of −10.36% while maintaining margin discipline. Marketplace generated USD 174.57 million and Enterprise contributed USD 27.16 million, highlighting a revenue mix anchored by expanding engagement, larger projects, and AI-enabled productivity enhancements.
Current Quarter Outlook
Marketplace Segment Outlook
Marketplace remains the center of gravity for Upwork Inc., and the setup into the fourth quarter is shaped by sustained client engagement, larger and more complex projects, and AI-driven product enhancements that improve productivity across both sides of the marketplace. In the third quarter, active clients measured 794,000 and GSV per active client reached USD 5,036.00, up year over year; those engagement metrics inform expectations for continuous Marketplace utilization and revenue resilience. With consensus revenue growth of 9.17% and EPS growth of 29.53%, the implied operating leverage suggests Marketplace monetization is improving, supported by refined product experiences and practical AI assistants that reduce friction, speed matching, and elevate quality. Gross margin durability around recent levels provides confidence that unit economics can remain constructive even as Upwork Inc. invests to deepen client and talent experiences; this balance of growth and discipline is a key narrative into the print. The principal watchpoints include whether Marketplace take rates and client spend intensity sustain their recent trajectory, and if the AI feature set continues to translate into observable improvements in productivity and contract scope.
Enterprise Opportunity
Enterprise has a smaller revenue base than Marketplace, yet it is emerging as a strategic leg of growth as AI-powered workflows enable richer collaboration and more complex, multi-stakeholder engagements. Upwork Inc.’s integration of AI agents and workflow automation aims to streamline discovery, coordination, and delivery for Enterprise programs, which can encourage repeat usage and longer-duration projects. Last quarter’s Enterprise revenue of USD 27.16 million provides a reference point, and the fourth quarter focus is on pipeline conversion, breadth of use cases, and proof points that AI-enabled delivery reduces cycle times while maintaining quality. The company’s stated multi-year ambition includes double-digit compound growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA through 2028, which positions Enterprise expansion as an important contributor; the quarter’s color on deal momentum and client adoption will help investors evaluate the pace toward those longer-term targets. A sustained uplift in average project scope, the integration of AI agents into team workflows, and evidence of broader category penetration are the markers likely to shape views on Enterprise’s trajectory through 2026.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Near-term share performance will be most sensitive to revenue and EPS relative to consensus, with USD 197.52 million and USD 0.31 serving as the key benchmarks for the fourth quarter. Commentary on gross margin stability and the outlook for operating expenses will be critical, as investors look for confirmation that Upwork Inc. can maintain margin quality while investing in AI capabilities and go-to-market initiatives. The degree to which management updates its annual outlook or reaffirms the multi-year growth framework through 2028 will also be influential, particularly around the balance between Marketplace momentum and Enterprise expansion. Engagement indicators such as active clients, GSV per client, and project complexity will help validate whether AI enhancements continue to drive higher-value contracts without compromising conversion or satisfaction. Finally, any shifts in product monetization, such as enhancements to matching or premium offerings, could recalibrate expectations for take rates and adjusted EPS trajectory through the first half of 2026.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views dominate recent commentary on Upwork Inc., with the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions at 100.00% to 0.00% based on the collected period. UBS upgraded the shares to Buy ahead of the third-quarter release, emphasizing improving execution, AI-enabled engagement, and earnings momentum that supports upside versus prior expectations. Roth MKM reiterated a Buy rating with a USD 22.00 price target, pointing to consistent outperformance on revenue and EPS, rising adjusted EBITDA, and a product roadmap that leverages AI to enhance client and talent productivity. The prevailing bullish stance is anchored in the company’s ability to beat consensus while maintaining healthy gross margins and expanding EBIT, as evidenced by the third quarter’s USD 55.15 million EBIT and 77.28% gross margin. Analysts also highlight the visibility provided by management’s longer-term framework, where double-digit compound growth targets through 2028 serve as a directional guidepost and reinforce confidence in the strategy. Into the fourth quarter, the majority view is that incremental gains in Marketplace monetization, ongoing AI adoption, and early validation of Enterprise workflows can sustain revenue growth of 9.17% and support adjusted EPS around USD 0.31, with potential upside if engagement and pipeline metrics show acceleration. The bullish case further rests on the premise that AI-driven improvements can continue to reduce friction and expand the breadth of projects, improving both client outcomes and talent utilization, which in turn benefits key performance indicators linked to earnings power. In summary, institutional perspectives skew positive, with emphasis on consistency in execution, margin quality, and the scalability of AI-enabled features that tie directly to higher-value work and more repeatable revenue streams over time.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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