BofA Securities has released a research report reiterating its view that the artificial intelligence industry is transitioning from demonstrating return on investment to addressing structural and physical constraints, particularly regarding chips and electricity. The bank highlighted that memory chip shortages and rising prices remain key levers for upward industry growth, while prospects for AI and server demand have also become increasingly clearer.
The firm noted that semiconductor stock valuations remain attractive, though it maintains a cautious stance ahead of midterm elections and until macroeconomic concerns subside.
Driven by memory and data center demand, alongside a recovery in the automotive and industrial sectors, BofA Securities has raised its 2030 global semiconductor industry total addressable market (TAM) forecast from $2.7 trillion to $3.2 trillion, implying a compound annual growth rate of 18% between 2026 and 2030.
Regarding wafer fab equipment (WFE), the bank has increased its 2026 WFE TAM projection by 8% from $144 billion to $156 billion, representing 33% year-over-year growth. Forecasts for 2027 and 2028 have been raised to $210 billion and $270 billion respectively, eventually reaching $360 billion by 2030, which translates to a 23% CAGR from 2026 through 2030.
Although concerns persist over potential slowdowns in AI infrastructure investment, BofA Securities observed no signs of deceleration in customer orders, long-term agreements, capacity commitments, or semiconductor pricing. Capacity across computing, networking, and memory suppliers for 2027 has already been largely booked or contracted, with expectations that 2028 will remain tight.
Comments