The wave of price increases for memory chips is intensifying. According to the latest information, Samsung Electronics more than doubled the price of its NAND flash memory in the first quarter of this year, a hike that far exceeded market expectations. Samsung Electronics has already begun a new round of negotiations with customers regarding NAND prices for the second quarter, and the market widely anticipates the upward price trend will persist into Q2.
Multiple institutions analyze that the "memory chip super cycle" driven by the AI wave is fully arriving. Citi forecasts that the average selling price (ASP) for DRAM and flash memory products could rise by 88% and 74% respectively in 2026, increases that are higher than the bank's previous predictions of 53% and 44%.
Prices Skyrocket On January 25, a report indicated that in the first quarter of this year, Samsung Electronics raised the supply price of NAND flash memory by over 100%, a surge significantly higher than previously anticipated by the market, highlighting the severe supply-demand imbalance in the current memory chip market.
Market research firm TrendForce had previously predicted NAND price increases of 33% to 38% for Q4 2025 and expected similar hikes to continue into Q1 of this year.
The report stated that, according to industry insiders, Samsung Electronics completed supply contract negotiations with major clients by the end of 2025 and formally implemented the new pricing system starting this January.
It is reported that Samsung Electronics has now commenced a new round of negotiations with customers concerning NAND prices for the second quarter of this year, and the market generally expects the upward price momentum to continue into Q2.
This aggressive pricing strategy reflects the robust demand for high-performance storage equipment driven by AI infrastructure construction.
As demand for enterprise SSDs (eSSDs) explodes due to data center expansion, and "on-device AI" pushes mobile devices and PCs towards higher-capacity storage upgrades, demand is experiencing exponential growth. However, the supply side has failed to keep pace promptly, leading to a situation in the memory chip market where "prices exist but goods are scarce."
Beyond Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, the second-largest player in NAND market share, has adopted a similar pricing strategy, demonstrating the strong bargaining power of leading manufacturers.
Overseas investment banks like Nomura Securities point out that even SanDisk, ranked fifth in the market, plans to raise NAND prices by 100% in the new year. An industry source indicated that, mirroring the situation with DRAM, NAND manufacturers are joining the price hike bandwagon, making an industry-wide price increase a certainty.
On the supply side, the memory chip market still faces severe constraints due to production capacity rigidity. Over the past year, there has been no large-scale capacity expansion in the NAND flash memory sector. Major manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics, have maintained a cautious approach to investment, with an industry consensus that shipment growth will be extremely limited.
Given the long-cycle nature of semiconductor capacity construction, it is unrealistic to expect supply increases to stabilize prices in the short term.
The pressure from rising memory chip prices will inevitably be passed on to consumers. Industry observers note that not only AI data centers but also smartphone and PC manufacturers plan to increase the selling prices of their final products in response to rising memory costs.
According to the schedule, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics will release their Q4 2025 financial reports next Thursday (January 29th).
"Capacity for This Year Already Sold Out" Various signs indicate that the tight supply in the memory chip market is likely to persist. Japanese memory giant Kioxia recently warned that the memory market will continue to be affected by AI-related investments for at least the next two years. Worse still, consumers will have to pay higher prices for the same products.
Kioxia is a leading global manufacturer of NAND flash memory and SSD solutions, spun off from Toshiba Corporation in 2018, and is currently the world's third-largest NAND flash memory supplier.
Shunsuke Nakato, Executive Officer of Kioxia's Memory Division, confirmed that the company's NAND flash memory production capacity for 2026 is already completely sold out.
Kioxia is currently focusing intensely on enhancing the performance of storage equipment for enterprise-level AI scenarios. However, for individual consumers, this shift in focus is driving up the prices of traditional consumer-grade storage products.
Speaking at an event in Seoul, South Korea, Nakato discussed the current AI-driven storage "super cycle" and projected that the tight supply of NAND flash memory would last at least until 2027.
To manage market demand cohesively, Kioxia is coordinating with long-term partners on the allocation of annual chip production capacity, rather than prioritizing allocation to the highest bidder, to prevent market disorder.
Looking ahead, Kioxia expects its business to achieve significant expansion in the coming months and years, with price increases likely being a key factor driving this growth.
On Wall Street, research teams from Citi, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America unanimously agree that the AI-driven "memory chip super cycle" has fully arrived, and the intensity and duration of this cycle could far surpass the "cloud computing era-driven storage super bull market" of 2018.
Analysts at Citi, led by Peter Lee, project that the ASP for DRAM and flash memory products could rise by 88% and 74% respectively in 2026, exceeding their previous forecasts of 53% and 44%.
Analysts note that, driven by increased usage of AI applications and growing demand for specialized central processors for AI training and inference, a severe shortage of general-purpose memory products is expected this year.
Nomura analysts believe that this "memory chip super cycle," which began in the second half of 2025, will last at least until 2027, and that truly meaningful new supply will not emerge until early 2028 at the earliest.
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