The weekly survey data released by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) on the 9th local time shows that the average rate for the benchmark US 30-year fixed mortgage loan this week increased slightly to 6.49%, a modest rebound from last week's 6.43% but lower than the 6.72% recorded during the same period last year.
The data indicates that, apart from the benchmark 30-year rate, the average rate for the 15-year fixed mortgage loan this week also saw a minor rise to 5.82% from last week's 5.79%, similarly lower than the 5.86% from a year ago. Although US mortgage rates have remained relatively stable overall in recent weeks, the resurgence of inflation triggered by geopolitical conflicts continues to squeeze the affordability of homebuyers across the nation.
Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, noted that recent mortgage rate movements have been generally limited, and as economic data trends evolve, the current environment and purchasing power in the homebuying market are in a phase of adjustment.
Analysts point out that while the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions do not directly determine mortgage rates, national mortgage rates have always closely tracked the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note. As of the afternoon of the 9th, the 10-year Treasury yield was fluctuating around 4.5%. Due to renewed inflation risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, market expectations for the Fed to cut rates in the first half of this year to guide mortgage rates lower have been dashed. Related forecasts suggest that US mortgage rates are expected to remain around 6.3% by the end of 2026, largely unchanged from the level anticipated for the end of 2025.
Supported by tight housing inventory propping up prices and persistently high and volatile interest rates, a significant number of potential US homebuyers have maintained a strong wait-and-see stance. However, the mid-term forecast revision report for the 2026 housing market released this week by Realtor.com shows that US home prices are projected to see a year-on-year increase of only 1.2% this year. This growth rate is not only lower than earlier expectations for the year but also below the current inflation rate, indicating that, after adjusting for inflation, real home prices have effectively entered a phase of decline.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, stated that amidst multiple uncertainties, the US economy has demonstrated a degree of resilience, which also means the housing market in the first half of 2026 is characterized more by "stability" than "strength." Hale emphasized that as sellers begin to adjust expectations, price growth cools, and buyers' bargaining power improves, the US real estate market is progressing slowly. It is anticipated that the prevailing wait-and-see sentiment will ease somewhat in the latter half of this year, potentially leading to a new balance between supply and demand conditions for buyers and sellers.
Comments