Analysis of consumption trends using tax big data by the State Taxation Administration indicates a vibrant consumer market in China for 2025. In 2025, driven by trade-in policies, the sales revenue of daily-use household appliances like refrigerators, kitchen and sanitary ware retailers such as gas stoves, and communication equipment retailers including mobile phones increased by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% year-on-year respectively, signaling an accelerated release of consumer demand. A new round of trade-in initiatives is currently in full swing across various regions. In Jiyang District, Jinan City, a rural national subsidy event has been launched recently, bringing hundreds of home appliance and 3C products into towns and villages. The local government specifically issued national subsidy eligibility codes, allowing villagers not only to directly benefit from the national subsidy but also to enjoy additional merchant subsidies, attracting thousands of residents from nearby towns to the bustling event site. CITIC Securities released a research report stating that 2026 will face the dual challenges of rising copper price trends and RMB appreciation; the firm believes the overall impact on the profitability of leading home appliance companies is manageable. Historical experience shows that price increases are the most effective core method to mitigate cost pressures. With demand supported by the implementation of national subsidies, there is a consensus for price hikes after the New Year. Leveraging strong terminal pricing power, mature cost-pass-through mechanisms, and comprehensive exchange rate risk management systems, leading companies are capable of navigating cyclical fluctuations and maintaining robust profit models. The sector's current valuation is at a historical low, coupled with characteristics of stable growth and high dividends, highlighting its investment appeal. China Securities Co., Ltd. pointed out that with improving expectations, the proportion of active equity funds heavily invested in home appliances saw a quarter-on-quarter rebound in Q4 2025, although it remains at a relatively low historical level. Specifically, the heavy allocation ratio in major white goods increased; holdings in black goods remained flat; while attention towards kitchen appliances, small household appliances, lighting, and components sectors showed divergence. Looking ahead, steady earnings growth is anticipated for leading home appliance companies, suggesting a positive outlook. Related Hong Kong-listed stocks in the home appliance industry chain include: Midea Group (00300), Haier SmartHome (06690), Hisense Home Appliances (00921), TCL ELECTRONICS (01070), Skyworth Group (00751), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810).
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