Everbright Securities has reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on Haidilao (06862), pointing to stronger-than-expected operational data during the 2026 Lunar New Year period as clear evidence of the company's recovery resilience and market leadership. Enhanced management efficiency following leadership changes, growth potential from new business categories, and solid dividend support further strengthen both short-term performance and long-term prospects. The firm has adjusted its 2025 net profit attributable to parent company forecast for Haidilao to RMB 4.063 billion, while maintaining 2026–2027 forecasts at RMB 4.796 billion and RMB 5.295 billion, respectively. This translates to earnings per share of RMB 0.73, RMB 0.86, and RMB 0.95 for 2025–2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20x, 17x, and 16x. Haidilao's single-store model remains mature, and its brand retains strong momentum, with expectations set for successful multi-brand operations.
Key insights from Everbright Securities include:
By early 2026, Haidilao reached a strategic inflection point described as a "second entrepreneurship." Founder Zhang Yong resumed the role of CEO, while four female executives with extensive frontline experience joined the board. Former management shifted to key roles such as intelligent mid-office operations, reflecting a strategic pivot from pure cost reduction to safeguarding core business fundamentals while pursuing breakthroughs. Following stabilized operational metrics in the second half of 2025, the main brand will advance scene-based renovations and expand franchising. The "Pomegranate Plan" multi-brand strategy has evolved from broad experimentation to focused support for standout brands and external acquisitions. The company has also revised its evaluation mechanism, moving away from pure data metrics toward comprehensive assessments that include business capability and humanistic care, supplemented by support mechanisms. Incentive structures have been diversified to include dedicated customer manager bonuses and equity participation under the "Pomegranate" initiative, aimed at boosting employee motivation.
The "Pomegranate Plan" represents Haidilao's strategic leap beyond the hotpot category to inspire talent and foster a second growth curve. Launched in 2024, the program established a full-cycle incubation and incentive system. By the first half of 2025, it had incubated 14 brands with 126 stores, covering average customer spending from over RMB 10 to more than RMB 160. Revenue from sub-brands surged 227% year-on-year in H1 2025. A seafood food hall serves as the core of future plans, with six cities targeted since the first store opened in December 2025. Operating under a fresh market model offering over 200 SKUs, it leverages Shu Hai's supply chain for same-day delivery of live ingredients and on-site preparation. The self-service model aligns well with consumer preferences, and the group is allocating extensive resources to support continued expansion. Other segments, such as sushi and delivery services, are also being prioritized.
Haidilao's main brand has bottomed out and begun to recover, with average customer spending rising in the second half of 2024 and reaching RMB 97.9 in H1 2025, outperforming industry trends. Through its "Different Haidilao" initiative, the company has driven recovery in table turnover rates via improvements in service, product offerings, and themed dining environments. Table turnover began improving steadily from July 2025, with over 4.5 million customers served during the two-day New Year’s period in 2026. During the Spring Festival holiday, the chain served more than 14 million customers, achieving a table turnover rate exceeding five times per day, demonstrating resilient demand and solidifying its leading position.
Since 2023, Haidilao has consistently increased its dividend payout ratio—rising from 40% in 2022 to 90% in 2023, introducing an interim dividend in 2024, and raising the full-year payout ratio to 95%, maintained through H1 2025. Based on the 2024 dividend amount and market capitalization as of March 4, 2026, the dividend yield reached 5.4%, ranking high within the industry.
Potential risks include slower-than-expected progress of the "Pomegranate Plan," food safety incidents, and rising raw material costs.
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