PayPal: A Catalyst For Change In Traditional Banking

Seeking Alpha2021-09-17

Summary PayPal's Enterprise Value exceeds many of the big banks, we deconstructed the reasons. The Yardeni model is in favor of PayPal and the broader market. Backtesting provides staggering results....

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Comments

Tanyl
2021-09-19
Tanyl
Invest PYPL is a good choice
GANCL
2021-09-19
GANCL
For long term investment
Hellokitty8
2021-09-17
Hellokitty8
Like pls thanks
Slowmopi
2021-09-17
Slowmopi
Ok
ApplePP
2021-09-17
ApplePP
Like pls! Thx!
Lun88
2021-09-17
Lun88
K
- Blackk:
  Ok

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This article analyzes the company's performance relative to traditional banking stocks. The report also looks at stock metrics holistically, these metrics are often looked at in isolation, which keeps investors in a speculative space but I made sense of it in this piece.\nFor relative purposes, I used Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).\nThis quantitative analysis doesn't cover corporate events unless they're used for illustrative purposes.\nEnjoy the read, and I welcome any questions in the comments section!\nData by YCharts\nBefore we look at the market cap, I decided to illustrate the tangible size of PayPal versus traditional banks by displaying the enterprise value. PayPal has managed to overtake the big banks with a concentration on a single product financial business as opposed to a diversified business model, which the big banks are going by.\nThis, to me, illustrates the shift toward the need for technology. In my opinion, the big banks will need to acquire a significant amount of fintech companies to remain the cornerstone of finance. We've already seen the ball starting to roll with Goldman's announced acquisition of buy-now-pay-later firm GreenSky.\nData by YCharts\nLet's look at the market cap. This stat won't really tell us much if we look at it in isolation; I've thus decided to speak about two things, the first being price multiples and the second being earnings expectations (discussed later).\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nLet's look at PE; PayPal's PE remains significantly inflated versus those of the traditional banks. But if we look at it holistically, it's actually being justified with a PEG below the benchmark (1.00).\nFintech stocks can still be considered growth stocks. Growth stocks thrive off of expected earnings as their predominant leading indicator. With that said, PayPal's market cap can be justified.\nSource: GuruFocus\nSource: Charles Schwab\nI'd like to outline two things to consolidate my argument regarding the justification of PayPal's market cap. The first is the constant trajectory of growth stocks outperforming value stocks, and the second is the growing tech composition on the S&P 500 index relative to the decline in financial stocks. I've been a believer that the market is currently following the Yardeni model as opposed to the Fed model; this has been done both consciously and subconsciously.\nThe Fed model is an old model, which suggests that the market is in a bullish space (ex-ante) when we see a decline in the 10-year treasury yield and an incline in the earnings yield.\nBelow is the Fed model as of 15 September, which suggests that we're heading towards a decline and that stocks are overvalued.\n\nHowever, the Yardeni model suggests that the expected earnings should be the benchmark used to the bond yield. Tech stocks thrive on expected earnings due to intellectual property building up and rigorous, constant annual growth rates in new markets. See the Yardeni model below, which suggests we're currently in a better spot.\nSource: Yardeni.com\nIf the Yardeni model really is the principal market determinant, then PayPal is in great shape considering its expected earnings growth versus the others'. The chart below illustrates various EPS growth estimates up to 2025, and PayPal comes out on top with a cumulative of 110.57% relative to its nearest competitor Bank of America, with 92.84%.\nPayPal\nBank of America\nGoldman Sachs\n\nMorgan Stanley\n\nKey Notes & Backtesting\nI'm not suggesting that based on expected earnings alone, PayPal will outperform these banks. You'll need to look at panel data in a few years to paint a clearer picture as banking is set for an overhaul.\nMy key argument on the financial sector is that technology has been the prevalent factor for growth due to its application in streamlining consumer efficiency. From a stock perspective, it's widely discussed that firms acquiring technology grow faster than firms acquiring traditional assets due to the hypergrowth of the acquired assets, the likes of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)are testimony to this.\nI ran a backtesting model on portfoliovisualizer to illustrate a few risk-return utility dynamics and look at panel data.\nMy portfolio weights were as follows.\nSource: Portfolio Visualizer\nPortfolio 1: Significantly Overweight PayPal.\nPortfolio 2: Overweight on traditional banking with PayPal being overweight as an asset.\nPortfolio 3: Overweight traditional banking and underweight PayPal as an asset.\nSource: Portfolio Visualizer\nPortfolio 1 with overweight PayPal and fintech as an industry presents us with the best returns. The portfolio started separating itself in 2017, and in 2020 it became the prevalent portfolio as the tech craze started. By the way, the tech craze has been connected to factor productivity growth and not just because of basic intuition.\nOther positive aspects include a superior Sharpe ratio for portfolio 1 and a superior Sortino ratio for portfolio 1. These imply that its earnings and the downside are more favorable relative to volatility than the other portfolios.\nThis doesn't by any means suggest that PayPal will be superior in the future. As a matter of fact, it's facing rising competition in the peer-to-peer space and will need to expand on operations to sustain its success over the past 13 years, as seen in the backtest.\nConclusion\nBased on current evidence, PayPal is exceeding traditional banking stocks' growth. Unless traditional banking improves on digitalization through acquisitions of peer-to-peer payment programs and buy-now-pay-later concepts, it may be left in the dark. Big banks are facing management changes for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008. It's been a period of steadying the ship, and it remains to be seen if alternative methods to growth will be considered moving forward.\nAreas of further study\nAnother interesting stock to analyze could be Square (NYSE:SQ), with its digital banking, payment, and crypto exploits. Doing regressions on stock performance relative to financial innovation would be an exciting avenue to explore as well. Panel data over the next few years could facilitate the validity of machine learnings models as well.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":887511449,"gmtCreate":1632062733681,"gmtModify":1676530694500,"author":{"id":"4087109808120260","authorId":"4087109808120260","name":"Tanyl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/174329973340cf0f5b68791ee5b08afd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Invest PYPL is a good choice","listText":"Invest PYPL is a good choice","text":"Invest PYPL is a good choice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887511449","repostId":1194500317,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":887801849,"gmtCreate":1632013736281,"gmtModify":1676530685809,"author":{"id":"3566524239552357","authorId":"3566524239552357","name":"GANCL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02bdb0309baf16b47e74509dc75824e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"For long term investment&nbsp;","listText":"For long term investment&nbsp;","text":"For long term investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887801849","repostId":1194500317,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884663633,"gmtCreate":1631887440322,"gmtModify":1676530662586,"author":{"id":"3574999301094404","authorId":"3574999301094404","name":"Hellokitty8","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like pls thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like pls thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884663633","repostId":1194500317,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884687734,"gmtCreate":1631887348228,"gmtModify":1676530662513,"author":{"id":"3584052109735205","authorId":"3584052109735205","name":"Slowmopi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884687734","repostId":1194500317,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884680673,"gmtCreate":1631886864392,"gmtModify":1676530662114,"author":{"id":"4087727767912800","authorId":"4087727767912800","name":"ApplePP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd8bf7562c03ba03ba659329bdb8ffa","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like pls! Thx!","listText":"Like pls! Thx!","text":"Like pls! Thx!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884680673","repostId":1194500317,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884694283,"gmtCreate":1631885845742,"gmtModify":1676530661641,"author":{"id":"3570689854299608","authorId":"3570689854299608","name":"Lun88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd11c854c4768369b7450d2e6813e13","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884694283","repostId":1194500317,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5904232,"gmtCreate":1631886783884,"gmtModify":1634796504615,"authorId":3572770726668540,"author":{"id":3572770726668540,"authorId":3572770726668540,"name":"Blackk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d9bfa23cdea8af3308e34dedf35d9e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":884694283,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":86,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1194500317"}