According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin is currently trading around the $80,000 mark, with market experts sharply divided over whether it can rebound to $100,000 before the year ends.
The core disagreement tracked by BlockMedia reporter Oh Soo-hwan lies in the fact that while continued institutional inflows and a clearer regulatory environment are seen as positive factors, sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve's potential rate hikes are becoming key obstacles suppressing upward price movement.
Looking at real-time market data, at 8:06 AM on the 19th, Bitcoin was quoted at 110.4 million Korean won on South Korean digital asset exchange Upbit, up just 0.24% from 9 AM the previous day.
Meanwhile, data from global trading platform Binance showed Bitcoin rising 0.53% to $81,727.
Among other major assets, Ethereum gained 0.08% to $2,393.67, and XRP rose 0.69% to $1.30.
Woofun AI on-chain data showed that in the past 24 hours, approximately $59.87 million (about 80.1 billion Korean won) worth of Bitcoin positions were forcibly liquidated, with long positions accounting for 70% of the total.
Total liquidations across the entire digital asset market reached approximately $265.85 million (about 372.2 billion Korean won).
Macro-level uncertainty is intensifying market volatility.
Technology stocks in the U.S. market have been particularly turbulent, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 3.8% on the 16th, and the VIX fear index touching a four-month intraday high.
However, U.S. stock index futures subsequently rebounded, with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.5%.
This week, more than 70 S&P 500 companies including Tesla (TSLA.US) and Meta (META.US) will report earnings, with markets closely watching whether increased AI infrastructure investment can ease profit pressures.
On the energy front, WTI crude fell 0.2% to $101.16, while Brent crude remained at a high near $110.
U.S. CPI data released on the 14th showed a 0.6% month-over-month increase, with core CPI up 0.3%. The surge in gasoline prices accounted for more than half of the overall price increase, making it a key variable for monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve has entered a blackout period ahead of its rate decision on the 28th.
Institutional forecasts show clear polarization.
Digital asset management firm Bitwise, based on growing institutional investor demand, predicts Bitcoin could break through the $100,000 mark before year-end.
Bitwise research head Ryan Rasmussen said he believes Bitcoin will trade higher than current levels by year-end and could even surpass $100,000, supported by spot ETF-driven institutional buying, rising corporate holdings, demand for value storage amid growing government debt, and an improving regulatory environment.
In contrast, U.K.-based digital asset trading and market data firm LO expects Bitcoin to trade between $85,000 and $95,000 before year-end.
LO research head Adam Morgan McCarthy analyzed that this year's macroeconomic environment has been unfavorable for Bitcoin, with the Fed having already raised rates in September and about a 75% chance of another hike in December, and this pressure will persist.
He believes Bitcoin can only return to the $100,000 level when oil and price momentum slows and the probability of further rate hikes decreases.
Changes in the derivatives market and capital flows reveal subtle shifts in market sentiment.
Luca Imbernici, senior derivatives trader at Nomura Group's (NMR.US) digital asset company LaserDigital, noted that although trading volume, ETF inflows, and corporate buying are all weakening and lacking upward momentum, excessive bullish speculation has decreased as perpetual futures funding rates have fallen below 0%.
He expects that if Bitcoin can successfully break through the $90,000 mark, prices could rise further as short positions are unwound.
From an institutional capital flow perspective, Citibank (C.US) data shows that in the third quarter of this year, the total market capitalization of the digital asset market grew from about $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion, with ETF flows turning to net inflows, though the pace has recently slowed.
CoinShares research head James Butterfill pointed out that since mid-July, $11.1 billion has flowed into digital asset investment products, but buying momentum has weakened recently.
He attributed this to market uncertainty rather than deteriorating fundamentals, emphasizing that sustaining price gains depends on renewed inflows from institutional investors.
Market sentiment indicators show the Fear and Greed Index at 53 points on the day, in neutral territory, down from 55 the previous day.
The index ranges from 0 to 100, with closer to 0 indicating greater selling pressure and closer to 100 indicating stronger buying interest.
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