NVIDIA's stock has rebounded after months of subdued performance, nearing a breakout from its narrow trading range, which analysts interpret as a bullish indicator. The chipmaker's shares have climbed over 10% in the past six trading sessions, marking their longest winning streak since October. This follows an extended period of stagnation where the stock remained largely flat from September 2025 through the end of last month. On Wednesday, the stock closed at $182, approaching the $185 level closely watched by technical traders.
BTIG's Chief Market Technician, Jonathan Krinsky, stated, "If NVIDIA can sustain a position above $185, I believe capital is prepared to flow back in. Its long-term trend remains positive." Krinsky views a firm hold above $185 as a signal that the stock has bottomed and is poised to begin an ascent. He added, "Given it was in an uptrend before entering a consolidation phase, we want to see NVIDIA resolve this sideways movement with an upward breakout."
U.S. equities rallied broadly on Wednesday. The advance was supported by eased concerns over a potential global economic crisis, following an announcement from President Donald Trump of a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran to allow continued negotiations on the truce and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. NVIDIA led the gains among S&P 500 components, rising 2.2%.
A breakout for the chipmaker would be a positive signal for investors. NVIDIA has been one of the top-performing stocks for years and remains the largest individual component of the S&P 500 by weight. However, the stock has traded sideways for months amid market worries that massive spending on AI infrastructure by major tech companies may not yield significant returns in the near term.
Buff Dormeier, Chief Technical Analyst at Kingsview Partners, believes the stock may need to surpass $200 to achieve a decisive upward move. He commented, "If we start to get that signal, the stock could easily resume its uptrend, especially considering NVIDIA is a bellwether for mega-caps and the broader market. If capital does begin to be redeployed, I see substantial upside potential. From a valuation perspective, NVIDIA is in a much healthier state than it has been in the past."
As Dormeier noted, the stock appears relatively inexpensive. Its forward 12-month P/E ratio is approximately 20x, significantly below its 10-year average of around 36x. Among the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, its valuation is among the lowest and roughly in line with that of the S&P 500 index. NVIDIA's valuation is at multi-year lows.
However, if NVIDIA fails to sustain its current rally, the bullish signal could turn bearish. Technical analysts are also monitoring the $170 level; a break below this price could signal further declines. Dormeier stated, "NVIDIA recently breached support around that level. I would view that as a key demarcation line to watch. If we break below it (which I think is quite possible), the stock could pull back toward $150."
Krinsky also identifies $170 as a critical level for NVIDIA, warning that despite the stock's uptrend, it could still face challenges. He said, "Recapturing $170 so quickly doesn't, in my view, mean the coast is clear. If it falls back to that level and closes below it, it would be a clearer signal that NVIDIA is likely to trend lower."
Both technical analysts cautioned that it is currently difficult to predict the direction of NVIDIA's movement, especially given macro pressures facing the overall market. The stock is equally likely to continue trading within its existing range. Dormeier noted, "In the short term, we see $165 as support and $180 as resistance. It will remain range-bound until it breaks one of these levels. It will either break out to the upside or break down. In the near term, we have at least seen it recover from its quarter-end lows."
Meanwhile, software stocks declined on Wednesday as Anthropic released its Claude Managed Agents and Meta showcased its latest AI model. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has fallen approximately 25% in 2026, significantly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is down about 1.4% for the year.
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