In recent years, global gold mine production has remained stable. Despite short-term impacts from the pandemic, safety-related shutdowns, and labor actions, the average annual year-on-year change in mined gold production has been limited between 2018 and 2024. In 2024, mined gold production reached 3,645 tons, marking a modest annual increase of 4 tons and becoming the second-highest annual output on record - the historical record was set in 2018 when gold mine production hit 3,658 tons (Figure 1). For the first three quarters of 2025, total gold production stood at 2,717 tons, an increase of 16 tons compared to the same period last year. Against the backdrop of soaring gold prices, we observe only this mild growth in mined gold output, raising critical questions about whether gold production is approaching its limits and what this implies for future gold supply. Figure 1: Mined Gold Production Moderately Rebounded in 2024 Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council
Is global gold mine production peaking? Based on data and trends from the first three quarters, we believe mined gold production in 2025 has the potential to set a new historical record. This view is supported by several key drivers: · Rising miner profit margins (see Figure 2 below) · Commissioning of new projects (particularly in Canada) · Project expansions in other regions · Increased Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining (ASGM) production, a point we highlighted in our "Global Gold Demand Trends Q3 2025 Report" Although risks such as sanctions may delay mining processes, additional output from new mines in regions like Russia could further boost total production. That said, shutdowns at some regional mines during 2025 have already impacted global gold output and may continue to constrain its growth. Figure 2: Gold Miner Profit Margins Have Risen Significantly in Recent Quarters *Data as of Q2 2025. Gold miner profit margin = Quarterly average LBMA Gold Price PM - Quarterly average AISC. Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
Nevertheless, our analysis and forecasts from Metals Focus suggest that global mined gold production will likely plateau gradually in the coming years, rather than peak and then decline (Figure 3). While new project commissions and production increases provide ongoing support, declining reserves, production disruptions, and capital expenditure costs for gold miners may limit the upside potential for gold output. Figure 3: Mined Gold Production May Gradually Enter a Plateau Phase Based on Metals Focus Forecasts Five-Year Mined Gold Supply Forecast* Source: Metals Focus *Forecast by Metals Focus based on estimates as of Q2 2025.
Why hasn't gold production kept pace with the surge in gold prices? Let's first look back at the changes in global mined gold production in recent years. Production in 2023 and 2024 was almost flat; overall gold mine production volatility has been just 2.3% over the past decade, 2.7% over the past 15 years, and 3% over the past 20 years (Figure 4). Figure 4: The Rate of Change in Mined Gold Production Has Consistently Been Relatively Small Annual Mined Gold Production Change Rate and Median* Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council *Annual data through 2024. Median change based on data from 2001 to 2024.
What are the reasons? Firstly, gold is mined on every continent except Antarctica, and this geographical dispersion creates stability for global mined gold output, even amidst various regional production disruptions. Secondly, lengthy mining cycles mean miners find it difficult to significantly increase or decrease production in the short term. Furthermore, discovering new deposits, obtaining mining permits, and constructing new mines is becoming increasingly challenging, as the volume of new project discoveries continues to decline (Figure 5), making any substantial production increase difficult. Equally important is the gradual aging and eventual closure of existing mines; without profit incentives, gold production could even decline in the medium to long term, and depletion at older mines may partially offset increases from new mining areas. Figure 5: Discovering New Projects is Becoming Increasingly Difficult Annual Number of Major Deposit Discoveries and Exploration Budget in the Global Gold Mining Industry* Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, World Gold Council *Annual data through 2024. For details, see: New finds remain scarce despite gold from major discoveries at 3 Boz | S&P Global.
Rising gold prices typically boost miner profit margins, which is expected to: · Drive the development of new mines; · Prompt the reopening of older mines previously closed due to lack of profitability, or extend the expected operational life of existing mines; · Stimulate growth in Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining (ASGM). The restarting of old mines and ASGM growth can have a more immediate impact on gold production, whereas, as mentioned earlier, bringing new mines online takes considerably longer and is more difficult. Our research finds that while rising gold prices often coincide with increased capital expenditure by gold miners in the same year, growth in mined production typically lags the gold price trend by at least six years (Figure 6). Figure 6: Gold Miner Capital Expenditure and Mine Production Response to Gold Prices* Source: ICE Benchmark Administration, Metals Focus, World Gold Council *Annual data through 2024. Total gold miner capex includes total sustaining capex per ounce, non-sustaining capex, and research and exploration expenditure.
Summary Forecasts from Metals Focus suggest that global gold mine production may be approaching a peak. The firm expects mined gold supply to gradually plateau in the coming years, rather than peak and decline. Over the past few decades, mined gold production has remained relatively stable, with minimal annual fluctuations despite short-term disruptions. This stability stems from the geographical diversity of gold mining, the long development cycles for new projects, and the gradual depletion of older mines. Consequently, changes in mined gold supply typically lag behind movements in gold prices. Coupled with relatively stable gold demand—bolstered by gold's dual role as a consumer good and an investment asset—the global gold market demonstrates resilience and balance.
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