On Friday, Bitcoin fell below the key $60,000 level for the first time since October 2024, though its price has since recovered above that mark.
The world's largest cryptocurrency has declined approximately 27% year-to-date in 2026 and is down nearly 50% from its all-time high. Despite the severe downturn, trading capital has not fled the crypto space. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) ranked among the top twenty securities by options trading volume. On Monday, two of the fifteen largest single options trades by notional value were bets on MicroStrategy and Coinbase Global Inc.
These two trades present starkly contrasting outlooks for the subsequent direction of the crypto market.
Interpreting the 2026 Bitcoin Market
In a trade involving MicroStrategy stock, led by Michael Saylor, a trader sold 29,425 units of a 125/180 diagonal call spread, collecting a premium of approximately $56 million in one go.
The specifics: The trader sold call options expiring on August 21 with a strike price of $125, using the proceeds to purchase call options expiring on June 18 with a strike price of $180. The profit logic of this options strategy relies on MicroStrategy stock continuing to weaken, remaining below $125 until the August options expire. The optimal scenario is for both sets of calls to expire worthless, allowing the trader to keep the entire premium received upfront.
This company, which holds a significant Bitcoin reserve, recently sold a portion of its core crypto assets, marking its first reduction in holdings in years. This move severely dented confidence among both its shareholders and the broader crypto investment community. However, top industry analysts believe a Bitcoin rebound is highly probable in the near future.
Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine and Head of Research at FundStrat Global Advisors, stated, "Amidst the current wave of various AI narratives challenging the credibility of the traditional financial system, Bitcoin remains the most robust store of value. Its proof-of-work foundation has been fully validated for its risk resilience."
Bitcoin's own resilience will be the core factor determining whether the entire crypto sector can recover. The other major crypto-related options trade on Monday occurred in Coinbase Global Inc, where a trader invested roughly $21 million betting on a significant rebound for the heavily battered exchange stock.
This trader also employed a diagonal options strategy: selling 10,990 call options expiring June 18, generating $4.9 million in premium income; while simultaneously spending $26 million to purchase call options expiring August 21 with a strike price of $160.
Although this combination can also profit from time decay, its overall bias is strongly bullish — the trader is betting on a substantial price increase in the longer-dated call options.
Coinbase's Performance This Year
This trade leverages Coinbase's currently elevated options premiums to generate immediate income, while positioning for a medium to long-term rise in the stock. For the August-expiring calls to become profitable, the stock price would need to reach $183.40 by then, representing a potential upside of approximately 13% from Monday's closing price.
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