Earning Preview: SBA Communications Corp this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 6.53%, and institutional views are bullish
Abstract
SBA Communications Corp is scheduled to report on February 26, 2026 Post Market; ahead of the print, forecasts point to year-over-year revenue growth and a large jump in adjusted EPS, while the market will track margin resilience and the sustainability of below-the-line tailwinds into the new fiscal period.Market Forecast
Consensus derived from the latest compiled estimates points to SBA Communications Corp delivering revenue of $726.15 million this quarter, up 6.53% year over year, alongside adjusted EPS of $3.79, up 83.05% year over year, and EBIT of $382.31 million, down 1.46% year over year. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit margin were not disclosed in the available estimate set; the focus therefore tilts to topline growth and the gap between EBIT and EPS trajectories.The main revenue engine remains site leasing, which historically supplies the bulk of consolidated revenue and is expected to anchor quarterly performance with its contracted, recurring profile and stable cost structure. Within the portfolio of operations, the site leasing segment remains the most promising near-term driver, supported by last quarter’s $656.43 million revenue contribution and the company-wide revenue growth trajectory of 6.53% year over year projected for this quarter.
Last Quarter Review
In the most recent reported quarter, SBA Communications Corp delivered revenue of $732.33 million, up 9.70% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 73.38%, GAAP net income attributable to the company of $237.00 million for a net profit margin of 32.34%, and adjusted EPS of $2.20, down 8.33% year over year. A notable highlight was profitability resilience on a sequential basis, with net income rising by 4.88% quarter on quarter even as the cost base evolved.Operationally, the core engine continued to be the site leasing business at $656.43 million, accounting for 89.64% of revenue, while site development services contributed $75.90 million; total revenue advanced 9.70% year over year, underscoring the strength of contracted cash flows and the breadth of tenant activity in the period.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core recurring leasing business
The upcoming quarter’s print is expected to be defined by the performance of SBA Communications Corp’s core site leasing operations, where revenue visibility tends to be high given long-dated customer contracts and embedded escalators. The company’s consolidated revenue estimate of $726.15 million (+6.53% year over year) implicitly assumes low- to mid-single-digit growth consistent with typical organic trajectory in recurring lease rents and amendment activity. The dynamic to watch is the translation of that topline into operating earnings, because the current estimate set implies EBIT of $382.31 million, a 1.46% year-over-year decline despite revenue growth.This EBIT-versus-revenue divergence suggests that the quarter may feature incremental operating expense pressure or a less favorable revenue mix versus the year-ago period. For investors tracking margin durability, two line items are especially relevant: direct site-level costs and corporate overhead absorption. If incremental operating costs, maintenance, or administrative outlays grew faster than rent escalators and gross new leasing activity, EBIT could lag revenue growth even as gross margin remains healthy. The company’s last reported gross profit margin of 73.38% sets a high base; preserving margins near that level would likely be viewed positively even if EBIT is modestly lower year over year.
From a cash-generation perspective, the interplay between recurring lease growth, churn, and amendment volumes will be critical to supporting consensus for an 83.05% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS to $3.79. A strong recurring foundation can mitigate volatility from one-time items. However, the large expected EPS step-up relative to EBIT indicates that below-the-line factors—such as interest expense, share count, or tax rate—may have an outsized impact on the final print. Investors should therefore pay attention to disclosures around financing costs and capital structure changes within the period, as these can influence EPS without altering core operating momentum.
Most promising business line
Within SBA Communications Corp’s operations, site leasing remains the most promising business line for the near term given its scale, predictability, and operating leverage. Last quarter, site leasing produced $656.43 million, 89.64% of total revenue, which provides both revenue visibility and a stable foundation for margin performance across cycles. Into the upcoming quarter, the company’s consolidated revenue estimate implies a 6.53% year-over-year gain; it is reasonable to anticipate that site leasing growth will be broadly consistent with the consolidated trajectory given its dominant weight in the revenue mix.The key watch items within site leasing include the balance between new lease activity and decommissioning, the cadence of contractual escalators, and the pace of lease amendments. Even modest shifts across these components can meaningfully influence quarterly run-rate revenue because of scale. If amendment activity and escalators track at or above internal plans, the segment should continue to produce stable sequential growth, supporting both the topline and consolidated gross margins near the last quarter’s 73.38%. Where consolidated EBIT is estimated to ease modestly year over year, the degree to which site leasing maintains or expands contribution margins will shape investor interpretation around cost discipline and mix effects.
The pronounced gap between projected EPS growth (+83.05% year over year) and EBIT (−1.46% year over year) puts the spotlight on how the site leasing platform supports free cash flow per share. Should leasing revenue and segment-level profitability come through as expected, it bolsters confidence that the EPS expansion is not solely a product of non-operating items. Conversely, if the site leasing trajectory undershoots expectations, the quarter’s EPS could be more sensitive to interest, taxes, or share count changes, which investors typically treat as lower-quality drivers.
Key stock-price swing factors this quarter
The first swing factor is the alignment—or lack thereof—between revenue growth and operating earnings. The current setup features revenue up 6.53% year over year against an estimated 1.46% year-over-year decline in EBIT. If the company demonstrates that cost pressures are temporary or tied to timing of expenses, and gross margin remains close to the prior quarter’s 73.38%, investors may look through the EBIT softness. Alternatively, a wider-than-expected decoupling between revenue and EBIT could trigger debate about run-rate profitability and incremental operating leverage.The second swing factor is the composition of EPS growth. With adjusted EPS forecast to rise to $3.79 (+83.05% year over year) while EBIT is modestly lower year over year, the earnings bridge will likely include significant contributions from below-the-line factors. Share count management, interest expense trajectory, and the effective tax rate can each move EPS materially. A favorable outcome would feature clear, recurring drivers—such as sustainable financing cost reductions or a structurally lower tax rate—rather than non-recurring items. The quality of EPS expansion will therefore be as important as the headline number in shaping the post-report reaction.
A third swing factor is sequential momentum and how the quarter positions the company for the subsequent reporting period. In the prior quarter, GAAP net profit rose 4.88% sequentially, which provided a constructive setup. If the company again prints solid sequential performance on revenue and profitability, it can reinforce confidence in full-year cadence. Conversely, if revenue or margin performance shows sequential softness, even a year-over-year EPS beat could be discounted. Given the concentration of revenue in site leasing, consistent sequential improvement often reassures investors that the recurring engine is functioning as expected.
Analyst Opinions
Based on opinions within January 1, 2026 to February 19, 2026, the ratio of bullish to bearish views is 2:0, indicating a clear bullish tilt heading into the release. Two large sell-side institutions have reiterated constructive stances with price targets above typical trading ranges in the period, emphasizing confidence in the durability of the company’s earnings outlook and cash generation.UBS maintained a Buy rating on SBA Communications Corp on January 20, 2026, adjusting its price target to $260. This positive stance reflects a view that the company’s earnings power is set to improve as revenue grows at a mid-single-digit pace while per-share earnings accelerate, supported by disciplined capital allocation and potential tailwinds below the operating line. UBS’s framework implicitly aligns with the current quarter’s forecast profile: revenue growth of 6.53% year over year, an expected adjusted EPS of $3.79, and an EBIT print that could be slightly lower year over year. Their constructive rating suggests an emphasis on per-share value creation and stability in the core leasing engine over short-term fluctuations in operating margins.
RBC Capital reaffirmed a Buy rating on January 9, 2026 with a price target of $215. RBC’s tone, taken together with the quarter’s estimate set, suggests an expectation that the company will sustain its recurring revenue momentum from the site leasing business while executing on cost controls and capital deployment to support per-share metrics. The strong expected increase in adjusted EPS (+83.05% year over year) despite a modest dip in EBIT underscores the relevance of financing costs, taxes, and share count to near-term equity value—areas where RBC expects management to maintain discipline. By focusing on the reliability of the leasing cash flows and the visibility into revenue growth, RBC’s Buy case sets a framework in which moderate operating variability does not derail the broader trajectory of per-share earnings and cash generation.
Synthesizing these bullish views, the majority opinion anticipates that SBA Communications Corp can deliver a quarter that is consistent with mid-single-digit revenue growth and materially higher adjusted EPS, with any EBIT softness framed as manageable and temporary. Investors aligned with the bullish camp are likely to focus on the quality of the EPS beat—if realized—seeking evidence that below-the-line tailwinds are durable and complemented by stable gross margins near the last-reported 73.38%. Clarity around cost trends, interest expense, and tax rate will be pivotal in validating the high EPS growth forecast and in determining whether positive ratings and elevated price targets remain justified after the print.
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