Apple Market Outlook Market Highlights and Key Data Futures Performance: The Apple 2610 contract closed at 7,393 yuan per ton yesterday, marking a slight increase of 3 yuan, or 0.04%, from the previous session. Spot Market: In Shandong's Qixia region, the price for grade 80# first and second-tier late Fuji apples was 3.20 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis (AP10) stood at -990, widening by 38 points. In Shaanxi's Luochuan region, the price for semi-premium grade 70# and above late Fuji apples was 3.75 yuan per jin, also unchanged, with the spot basis at +110, widening by 38 points.
Recent Market Information: Prices for stored apples in production areas have remained stable but weak. The number of traders has increased slightly compared to earlier periods, with many selecting cost-effective supplies. Overall transaction speed is moderate, with slightly improved movement for lower-priced goods. Currently, most production areas are in a busy farming period, leading to labor shortages in cold storage facilities and rising labor costs. In the northwest region, recent demand has primarily come from small-scale buyers, while medium and large-scale clients have limited purchases. Growers are lowering prices to promote sales, resulting in chaotic pricing. In Shandong production areas, a small number of traders are procuring high-value, partially red-colored apples, but overall transactions are average. For the new season, growers have begun thinning fruits, and bagging work has started in areas like Fuping, Shaanxi. Price ranges in Qixia are 2.5-4.0 yuan/jin for 80# first and second-tier partially red apples and around 1.5-2.0 yuan/jin for 80# standard goods. In Shaanxi's Luochuan production area, grower standard goods are priced at 2.3-2.8 yuan/jin, while trader semi-premium goods for outbound shipment are 3.5-4.2 yuan/jin. In Gansu's Jingning region, semi-premium goods are priced between 4.5-7.0 yuan/jin.
Market Analysis Apple futures prices consolidated weakly at low levels yesterday. Although overall shipments from production areas have shown slight improvement and the digestion of low-priced goods has accelerated somewhat, supply pressure in Shandong remains greater than in the western regions, and growers' urgency to sell persists. Arrivals in sales regions are normal, but sales are slow. Seasonal fruits like watermelons and lychees are hitting the market in concentration, continuously diverting terminal consumption. The nationwide pace of destocking from cold storage is slower than the same period last year, with current inventories exceeding last year's levels. The remaining stock quality is subpar, pushing destocking pressure further back. Bagging work for the new apple season has begun gradually, with good fruit set reported. Expectations of a bumper harvest continue to weigh on valuations for distant-month contracts. In the short term, the futures market may continue its weak trend.
Strategy Neutral.
Risks Insufficient boost in terminal consumption, intensified competition from substitute fruits, destocking pressure.
Jujube Market Outlook Market Highlights and Key Data Futures Performance: The Jujube 2609 contract closed at 9,055 yuan per ton yesterday, unchanged from the previous session. Spot Market: In Hebei, the spot price for premium-grade gray jujube was 7.90 yuan per kilogram, unchanged. The spot basis (CJ09) was -1155, unchanged.
Recent Market Information: Accumulated temperatures in the main gray jujube production areas are generally higher than in recent years. Growers are actively managing orchards, with pruning, fertilizing, and bud removal proceeding in an orderly manner. The plants have now entered the flowering stage, about half a month earlier than usual. Ring girdling work is expected to begin gradually by the end of the month. Weather changes during the flowering period require ongoing attention. On May 19th, 11 truckloads arrived at the parking area of Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market. Most arrivals were substandard goods, with a small amount of finished products. Traders selected suitable supplies based on demand for procurement as needed, with approximately 4 truckloads transacted. At Guangdong's Ruyifang market, 3 truckloads arrived, primarily from Hebei. Market prices remained stable, with downstream traders purchasing based on demand.
Market Analysis Jujube futures prices consolidated at low levels yesterday, lacking upward momentum. New-season jujube trees in production areas have entered the initial flowering stage. Higher accumulated temperatures have accelerated growth progress. The potential impact of subsequent high temperatures and windy weather on fruit set requires continuous monitoring. The trading atmosphere in sales regions remains subdued, with limited support from Dragon Boat Festival preparations. The arrival of summer seasonal fruits continues to divert consumption. Sample inventories remain relatively high for the period, with a slow destocking pace, keeping spot market prices under pressure. In the short term, the combination of the off-season for consumption and a loose supply-demand balance suggests futures prices may continue to consolidate at low levels. Key focuses are the pace of inventory reduction and weather changes in production areas.
Strategy Neutral.
Risks Persistently weak terminal consumption, diversion by seasonal fruits, slow inventory drawdown, potential disturbances from pests and weather in the new season.
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