On the afternoon of November 10 Beijing time, Brent crude fell 2% during the day to $90.71 per barrel, while WTI crude dropped below $85 per barrel, down 2.13% on the day.
According to earlier CCTV reports, Trump said in a media interview on the 8th that as long as progress is made in US-Iran negotiations, the United States is "extremely unlikely" to resume large-scale military action against Iran, but he also stressed that US forces in the Middle East are "ready" and did not rule out the possibility of using force again. Another report said Iran has made concessions on the Strait of Hormuz issue and abandoned some of its original demands.
Guotai Haitong Securities pointed out that with international oil prices loosening, aviation will be the sector that benefits the most. Under high oil prices, airlines cut flights and raised prices in Q2 to ensure that more than 60% of oil price pass-through was achieved. In Q3, they added flights and traded price for volume, resulting in less than 30% oil price pass-through. This suggests that airline operating strategies began to improve starting in September compared with the summer travel season. In October, controlling volume and protecting prices pushed fuel-inclusive ticket prices to turn positive year-on-year. According to Flight Manager, the three major airlines cut flights by about 6% year-on-year in October.
In November, the ex-factory price of domestic jet fuel rose 75% year-on-year. After the schedule change, airline strategies continued. Recently, domestic bare ticket prices have risen year-on-year, and fuel-inclusive ticket prices are estimated to have risen by more than 10% year-on-year. Airlines' oil price pass-through may improve significantly compared with Q3.
Related Hong Kong stocks in the civil aviation sector include: China Southern Airlines (01055), China Eastern Airlines (00670), Air China (00753), Cathay Pacific (00293), and TravelSky Technology (00696).
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