As the first year of humanoid robot mass production enters its final month in 2025, the narrative surrounding it has taken a somewhat "complicated" turn.
On December 7, rumors swirled about Tesla Motors' humanoid robot team conducting factory audits in China—a key step in evaluating suppliers for mass production readiness. Industry insiders suggest these audits may be in preparation for the Q1 2026 launch of Tesla's Optimus Gen3 robot, signaling that Tesla's robotics supply chain, after nearly two years of prototyping and testing, could soon transition to full-scale production.
Tesla has been eager to showcase the capabilities of its Optimus robots. Days earlier, a viral video of the transitional Optimus Gen2.5 model running impressed markets with its advanced mobility. However, skepticism soon followed when another video surfaced showing a Tesla robot handing a cup to a viewer before falling backward—while mimicking a "removing VR goggles" gesture. This raised doubts about whether the robot was autonomously "end-to-end" AI-driven or remotely controlled via VR by an operator.
On December 8, Tesla's stock dropped 3.39%, erasing roughly $50 billion in market value. The incident was dubbed "the most expensive fall in history."
**Glimmers of Mass Production** "A lot of Tesla’s demo videos rely on remote operation—it’s an open secret in the industry," a Shenzhen-based robotics executive revealed. Unlike computationally intensive "end-to-end" embodied AI, VR/AR teleoperation can replicate human movements with a lean team.
Yet, this doesn’t mean humanoid robots without advanced AI lack mass-production potential. Companies like Ubtech and Unitree are already using VR/AR teleoperation to enhance robots' motion control, aiming for human-like agility. In certain scenarios, fixed-algorithm teleoperation, though less versatile, proves more cost-effective than AI-heavy alternatives, enabling faster commercialization.
Despite the market’s preference for "high expectations" over "high reality," Tesla’s stock retreated under pressure. Still, optimism persists for its 2026 robot launch. Recent reports indicate Tesla’s supply chain has finalized backend inspection equipment, standardized technical documentation, and solidified component designs and motion algorithms—hinting that mass production is nearing.
However, conflicting narratives persist. Some argue Tesla’s factory audits are routine and not directly tied to robot production timelines, while others speculate Elon Musk may delay the Optimus Gen3 launch if its AI fails to meet generalization requirements or relies too heavily on teleoperation.
**Musk’s Final Bet** Tesla’s influence has shaped global confidence in humanoid robotics. Shi Zhaoyao, a member of China’s humanoid robot standardization committee, noted that the sector’s resurgence is closely tied to Musk and Tesla. "If Optimus Gen3 delivers surprises or broader applications, it could spark rapid growth in China—potentially faster than Tesla’s EV impact in 2019," he said, adding that Tesla has already placed preliminary orders with suppliers, contradicting earlier speculation about a lack of production guidance.
Starting in 2026, humanoid robot commercialization will be a top priority for Musk and Tesla. In November 2025, shareholders approved Musk’s 10-year compensation plan, which could grant him Tesla stock worth nearly $1 trillion—contingent on lifting Tesla’s market cap from $1.5 trillion to $8.5 trillion. With Tesla’s auto business alone unlikely to achieve this, Musk is banking on Robotaxi, energy storage, and humanoid robotics—since xAI (Grok) and SpaceX operate outside Tesla.
Wall Street remains cautious. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco noted, "While Tesla is more than an automaker, we expect volatile trading conditions ahead," downgrading the stock for the first time in two years due to overpriced non-auto catalysts.
(Author: Zhao Yunfan)
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