Last autumn, shortly after taking their cryptocurrency exchange Gemini public, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss hosted an extravagant party in the greenhouse of the Royal Botanic Garden Sydney to celebrate the company's expansion into Australia. The twins appeared via video link while a DJ performed for a crowd of supporters. James Logan, the newly appointed head of Gemini's Australian operations under its Gemini Space Station initiative, declared on social media, "We are here to stay in Australia."
Just days after the Sydney celebration, the cryptocurrency market crashed, triggering a severe sell-off that wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value. Soon after, Logan departed, and Gemini shut down its Australian operations, withdrawing entirely from overseas markets. Logan declined to comment on the matter.
The crypto market collapse severely disrupted the twins' plans for their newly public company. Faced with soaring costs and significant losses, the brothers dismissed the company's senior executive team in February and laid off a quarter of the exchange's workforce. Since its public listing, Gemini's market capitalization has plummeted by 70%, and its current valuation is approximately 15% of the $7.1 billion it was valued at during a 2021 funding round. About half of the company's revenue comes from cryptocurrency trading fees, and it also offers a popular crypto rewards credit card.
According to two informed sources, the Winklevoss brothers are expected to take on more significant roles at Gemini in an effort to reverse the company's decline. However, Dan Dolev, a senior equity research analyst at Mizuho Financial Group, stated that turning a profit is extremely challenging for a small exchange during a crypto bear market. "Competition in the industry is intensifying; it's no easy task," he remarked. Both Gemini and the Winklevoss brothers declined to comment.
The twins, who gained fame from their legal dispute with Mark Zuckerberg over the founding of Facebook, have long been staunch proponents of cryptocurrency. They founded Gemini in 2014, believing there was a lack of secure and reliable platforms for buying, selling, and storing Bitcoin at the time. Recently, they have supported former President Donald Trump's pro-crypto agenda, contributing to his campaign and to funds backing pro-cryptocurrency candidates.
In July 2024, at a cryptocurrency conference in Nashville, then-presidential candidate Trump praised the 44-year-old twins, saying, "They are male models with brilliant minds." In January, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dropped a 2023 lawsuit against Gemini concerning a problematic lending product, signaling a more lenient regulatory stance toward cryptocurrency under the Trump administration.
Gemini went public last September, raising $425 million and achieving a market capitalization of $3.3 billion. According to a securities filing at the end of September, the twins—Tyler as CEO and Cameron as President—own 64% of the company's shares. Gemini provides cryptocurrency credit card services and assists traders with custody, buying, and selling of digital assets.
Gemini has remained a minor player in the crypto market, partly because the Winklevoss brothers have frequently shifted their focus to trending new areas, such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and, more recently, prediction markets. While larger competitors like Coinbase dominate U.S. retail trading and Robinhood has found success in prediction markets, Gemini's business strategy has appeared fragmented.
The brothers have also invested substantial personal funds in other crypto ventures, both internationally and in the U.S., including publicly listed companies that hold cryptocurrency. They have emulated Michael Saylor's strategy of holding Bitcoin, which has become a popular method for stock market investors to gain exposure to crypto.
For instance, last September, their family investment office led a $150 million funding round to establish a European company that purchased 1,000 Bitcoins. Subsequently, the brothers attempted to merge this entity with a little-known Dutch investment firm, MKB Nedsense. However, the plan faced repeated delays, partly because Nedsense executives reported being unable to contact the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM), whose approval was necessary for the transaction.
"The AFM, with 850 employees, has been unreachable for weeks. Calls and emails go unanswered; communication is impossible," wrote the company's director, Peter Paul de Vries, in a letter to shareholders. Last month, the deal collapsed. While awaiting approval, the value of the Bitcoin held by the company decreased by approximately 40%.
The brothers attempted a similar strategy in the United States. They personally led a $60 million funding round to acquire a Nasdaq-listed biotechnology company and launched a U.S. version of the "Saylor strategy," named Cypherpunk Technologies, aimed at accumulating a privacy-focused cryptocurrency.
Following the announcement, Cypherpunk's stock price surged. However, after the initial excitement faded, its market value dropped by over 75%, and the related token has since lost more than half its value.
Concurrently, after Gemini's public listing, the brothers began shutting down some unsuccessful business lines, including the NFT marketplace Nifty Gateway, launched in 2020, which had attempted to capitalize on the NFT boom.
In February, they announced that Gemini would cut a quarter of its workforce and part ways with Chief Operating Officer Marshall Beard, Chief Financial Officer Dan Chen, and Chief Legal Officer Tyler Meade—the latter having assisted the brothers in their lawsuit against Facebook.
The Winklevoss brothers stated that overseas markets were "difficult to win" and that the company's expansion had led to unsustainable cost increases. "Market demand in these regions is insufficient to support our operations," they explained.
Gemini is set to report its 2025 financial results next week. According to a securities filing, the company's costs rose by up to 70% last year, reaching $530 million, while revenue increased by a maximum of only 24%. Net losses for 2025 are projected to be between $587 million and $602 million.
Alongside the layoffs, the Winklevoss brothers announced their next strategic focus: the growing prediction markets sector, which allows users to bet on outcomes such as weather, sports events, and even daily Bitcoin price fluctuations. Currently, exchanges like Polymarket and Kalshi dominate this space, and their activities have drawn volume away from cryptocurrency trading.
Federal regulators approved Gemini's prediction markets business late last year, but growth has been slow. From its mid-December launch to early February, trading volume on the platform barely exceeded $24 million. In contrast, Polymarket alone recorded $340 million in trading volume on a single Tuesday recently. Rohan Chohan, head of Gemini's prediction markets, left the company shortly after the product launched in December.
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