The global AI race is accelerating structural shortages in "copper and electricity" resources, particularly in the U.S., where tight power markets and constrained copper supply could become critical bottlenecks for AI industry development.
According to Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven and his team in their latest 2026 commodities outlook report, the explosive growth of AI data centers in the U.S. is driving a surge in electricity demand. The U.S. power market faces increasing tightness, with risks of significant price spikes or even blackouts, potentially slowing America's progress in the AI race.
The report notes that AI-driven data center expansion has pushed annualized U.S. electricity demand growth to nearly 3%, outpacing GDP growth. Goldman estimates that most U.S. regional power markets already operate at or below critical reserve capacity levels. This tension triggered real-time power price surges last summer and drove up generation capacity costs in markets like PJM, home to Virginia—the global data center capital.
Goldman expects further tightening in U.S. power markets by 2026, with heightened price volatility and potential localized supply disruptions that could impact data center operations and AI computing expansion. Meanwhile, copper prices benefit from global electrification and AI infrastructure buildout. While short-term corrections may occur, the long-term bullish thesis remains intact.
**U.S. Power Market Under Strain, AI Progress at Risk** With coal plant retirements and renewable energy additions failing to fully offset the gap, U.S. power markets will tighten further next year.
Goldman's data shows U.S. data center capacity hit a record high in November, with 72% concentrated in just 1% of U.S. counties—exacerbating local grid stress. Reserve margins are projected to decline as surging demand and coal retirements outpace renewable and natural gas additions, raising risks of price spikes or outages, especially in data center hubs.
By contrast, China maintains ample spare capacity, projected to triple global data center power demand by 2028 (~360 GW vs. ~105 GW). This suggests power constraints may uniquely hinder U.S. competitiveness in AI.
**Commodities: Copper Remains Goldman’s Long-Term Top Pick** Copper is deemed indispensable for electrification and AI infrastructure, with ~50% of global demand tied to power sectors like data centers, renewables, EVs, and grid upgrades.
After 2025 gains driven by U.S. refined copper tariff expectations and inventory drawdowns, Goldman forecasts 2026 prices to consolidate at elevated levels (~$11,400/ton average).
Supply faces unique challenges: long mine development cycles, geographic concentration, and limited capacity for China to expand overseas investments. Global ex-U.S. inventories are expected to keep declining, supporting prices. While U.S. tariff stockpiles may ease near-term pressure, electrification and AI demand will sustain long-term price gains. Goldman reiterates its $15,000/ton copper price target for 2035.
In stark contrast, aluminum, lithium, and iron ore face oversupply in 2026 (prices projected 19%, 25%, and 15% below spot, respectively), fueled by China’s overseas investments.
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