Spot Gold:
June 22, Market Drivers: During the European session on Monday, spot gold partially surrendered its earlier strong gains, trading below $4,200, yet it managed to hold onto its first advance in four trading sessions. The announcement by mediators Qatar and Pakistan of a 60-day roadmap for a final U.S.-Iran peace deal weighed on oil prices, easing market concerns about inflation and higher interest rates and providing some support for gold. However, the gold price remained not far from the one-week low it hit last Friday.
Technical Perspective
From a daily chart perspective, gold remains within a phased corrective trend. Previous attempts to break above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) were unsuccessful, with price retreating again near that key resistance area, indicating that selling pressure overhead remains significant. Technically, last week's failure to breach the crucial 200-day EMA level, which has turned from support to resistance, and the subsequent decline is favorable for gold bears. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just above the 30 level, suggesting weak buying interest. Coupled with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remaining in negative territory and its histogram showing a slightly negative bias, it indicates that downward momentum has weakened but has not yet reversed. On the 30-minute chart, the Stochastic indicator shows a temporary golden cross, while the MACD lines are flat; the pattern is oscillating upward. The 1-hour chart shows a Stochastic golden cross and upward MACD lines, with an oscillating upward pattern; the key conversion pressure level is near $4,232. The 4-hour chart shows the Stochastic indicator in a golden cross upward and flat MACD lines, with a conversion level near $4,257. For the evening session, focus is on resistance around $4,232/$4,257 and support around $4,175/$4,135.
Evening Trading Strategy for Gold
Personal suggestion: Consider buying on a pullback to $4,183/$4,176, and consider selling on a rebound to $4,234/$4,255, with a 10-point stop-loss each, targeting 20/50 points.
WTI Crude Oil:
Market Drivers: On Monday, June 22, the Strait of Hormuz, a core waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the global energy market, has seen a notable recent increase in traffic intensity. With a phased easing of regional geopolitical tensions and changes in shipping restrictions, crude oil and liquefied natural gas transport activities have concurrently recovered. Combined with the accelerated pace of resumed Iranian crude oil exports, the regional tanker flow structure is undergoing a phased reassessment. Energy market attention on supply elasticity and transportation security has significantly increased.
Technical Perspective
On Monday (June 22), U.S. crude oil traded around $75.380 per barrel, down 0.62%. Oil fell in recent intraday trading as bearish pressure continued to build. The pullback occurred as the Relative Strength Index reached severely overbought levels and a negative divergence emerged, with negative signals beginning to appear, indicating waning bullish momentum. The price decline coincided with oil continuing to trade below the EMA50, which adds downward pressure to price action. Furthermore, the primary short-term trend remains bearish, with prices moving along a descending trendline supporting the current direction. These factors together increase the likelihood of sustained selling pressure in the near term and keep the overall technical outlook negative. For the evening session, focus is on resistance around $76.6/$78.0 and support around $74.3/$72.8.
Evening Trading Strategy for Crude Oil
Personal suggestion: Consider buying on a pullback to $72.8/$73.6, and consider selling on a rebound to $76.4/$77.5, with a 1.0-point stop-loss each, targeting 3.0 points/barrel.
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