On the morning of April 16, as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee and State President Su Lin traveled from Beijing to Guangxi via high-speed rail for a visit, China's first-quarter economic report was released. China's GDP grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, demonstrating the stability of the Chinese economy akin to a speeding high-speed train.
While conflict rages in the Middle East, disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and causing global supply chain volatility, and the International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth forecast, the domestic scene in China presents a stark contrast. From the flags of China, Spain, and Vietnam flying over Tiananmen Square, to the succession of visits by foreign dignitaries, and this robust quarterly report, China has become a safe harbor in a turbulent world.
"Despite the impact of the Iran conflict, China's first-quarter economic growth was higher than expected," reported Bloomberg. The 0.5 percentage point acceleration is significant; it indicates that external challenges have not hindered the progress of the Chinese economy but have instead made this growth more substantial.
Notably, the "troika" driving economic growth—consumption, investment, and foreign trade—are all accelerating. Consumption, as the main engine of the economy, saw total retail sales of consumer goods increase by 2.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. In terms of investment, national fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 1.7% year-on-year, a notable turnaround from a 3.8% decline in the previous year. Regarding foreign trade, the total import and export value exceeded 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period historically, with the quarterly growth rate reaching its highest in nearly five years.
Although congestion in the Strait of Hormuz has reduced China's trade with the Middle East, it has not impeded the overall growth momentum of China's foreign trade. In the first year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economy has achieved a strong start, underpinned by both resilience and confidence.
Amid ongoing Middle East conflicts and gloomy global economic prospects, why has China's economy managed to accelerate against the trend? A key supporting factor is the robust drive from new quality productive forces. Mao Shengyong, Deputy Head of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that this year's growth is largely supported by the cultivation of new quality productive forces, innovation-driven development, and the accelerated growth of new drivers.
Data shows that the value-added of high-tech manufacturing grew by 12.5% in the first quarter, 6.4 percentage points faster than the average for all industrial enterprises above the designated size. Value-added in industries such as integrated circuit manufacturing and biological medicine manufacturing increased by 49.4% and 14.8%, respectively. These new growth drivers have not only offset external risks but have also enabled the Chinese economy to achieve improvements in both quality and efficiency.
China's vast market scale and complete industrial system continue to act as a "ballast," supporting the steady progress of a major economy. In the first quarter, driven by policies targeting "major projects and new types of infrastructure" and "new urbanization and rural revitalization," the contribution of domestic demand reached 84.7%, an increase of nearly 30 percentage points year-on-year. A consumer market of over 1.4 billion people and the world's most comprehensive industrial system provide the Chinese economy with strong resilience and room for maneuver.
The preemptive and precise implementation of policies is also crucial. The Wall Street Journal analyzed that China's economic acceleration in early 2026 benefited from resilient exports and front-loaded policy support. Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute at Yuekai Securities, stated that the accelerated issuance pace of new special bonds, with progress faster than the same period last year, has driven infrastructure investment to maintain a good growth rate. Policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods and the optimized Spring Festival holiday arrangements have contributed to the recovery in consumption compared to last year.
The trade-in program for consumer goods continues to be effective, driving sales of related goods to over 430 billion yuan in the first quarter, benefiting more than 60 million people. More importantly, the coordinated and front-loaded macro-economic policies have stabilized expectations and underpinned the economic foundation.
In response to shocks, China promptly implemented temporary price controls on oil. While many countries face soaring oil prices, energy shortages, and disruptions to production and daily life, China maintains sufficient and well-supported energy supplies for production and living. Luo Zhiheng believes that the energy supply shock caused by the Middle East conflict has instead boosted strong demand for China's new energy vehicles, demonstrating the vitality of China's security development strategy in responding to major global changes.
"Our industrial chain is complete, our energy structure is more optimized, and our support conditions in all aspects are more abundant, making our exports more resilient. Therefore, while there may be some impact, overall, it is limited and controllable," stated Mao Shengyong. This statement reflects China's confidence and assurance in facing the challenges posed by the Middle East conflict.
The 5.0% growth rate in the first quarter is not just a number; it is a concentrated reflection of the strong resilience, enormous potential, and vibrant vitality of the Chinese economy.
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