According to industry surveys, Macau's gaming revenue for the first 26 days of October reached MOP 20.4 billion, with average daily revenue at MOP 785 million. Last week, the daily gaming revenue further accelerated to MOP 793 million. JPMorgan believes this reflects pent-up demand during the Golden Week, as many players shortened their trips due to typhoons and the Mid-Autumn Festival.
The bank noted a clear potential upside trend in gaming revenue, with October's total possibly hitting MOP 23 billion—the highest in 71 months. Starting December, due to a lower base effect, JPMorgan expects mid-teens growth in gaming revenue, maintaining low double-digit growth in Q1 next year.
Short-term, JPMorgan favors Wynn Macau (01128), assigning an "Overweight" rating, as its Q3 results may exceed expectations. Medium-term, the bank remains bullish on Galaxy Entertainment (00027), also rated "Overweight."
Conversely, JPMorgan is least optimistic about SJM Holdings (00880) and Melco International Development (00200), rating them "Neutral" and "Underweight," respectively. The bank views their valuations as high relative to fundamentals, with limited shareholder returns over the next 12 months.
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