Abstract
Valley National will report fourth-quarter results on January 29, 2026 Pre-Market. This preview compiles recent financial trends, last quarter’s performance baselines, segment dynamics, and consensus-style projections to frame expectations for revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS alongside the dominant analyst stance through January 22, 2026.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, Valley National’s internal projection set and market-aligned estimates point to total revenue of $525.04 million, implying estimated year-over-year growth of 12.19%, with estimated EPS of $0.29, and estimated EBIT of $242.27 million, reflecting projected year-over-year growth of 24.07%. Forecast commentary points to stable-to-improving profitability into the quarter; however, an explicit gross profit margin forecast is not available, and the company-level outlook embeds a continued focus on disciplined deposit costs and loan mix, with a net profit margin outlook consistent with low-to-mid 30.00% levels implied by recent results.
The main business is anchored by commercial lending, where recent quarter revenue contribution was $370.96 million with moderate growth tied to stabilized volumes and pricing; consumer lending added $101.61 million, and treasury and corporate other totaled $38.54 million. The most promising segment remains commercial lending at $370.96 million, where mix optimization and credit normalization are expected to support mid-single-digit growth year over year.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Valley National delivered revenue of $511.11 million, GAAP net profit attributable to common shareholders of $163.00 million, a net profit margin of 33.77%, and adjusted EPS of $0.28, as reported; a gross profit margin figure was not disclosed for the period. Notably, EPS of $0.28 exceeded the prior consensus snapshot of $0.26, while revenue of $511.11 million grew 8.48% year over year, supported by resilient core spread income and stable fee contributions. The main business mix featured commercial lending revenue of $370.96 million, consumer lending revenue of $101.61 million, and treasury and corporate other revenue of $38.54 million, with commercial lending remaining the key revenue pillar.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Commercial Lending
The commercial lending franchise is expected to remain the largest revenue and earnings driver this quarter given its $370.96 million base in the previous period and a continued emphasis on credit discipline. Management’s focus on relationship-based lending and balanced exposure across commercial real estate and commercial-and-industrial portfolios suggests stable net interest income, provided deposit betas remain contained. With the estimate for total revenue at $525.04 million and EBIT at $242.27 million, incremental operating leverage likely hinges on sustained loan yields and a plateauing in funding costs, which would support slight expansion in the net profit margin. Watch for credit cost signals in commercial real estate, especially office and multifamily sub-buckets, as even modest reserve builds could temper EPS leverage despite top-line growth. Lending pipelines and line utilization trends into late quarter appear constructive based on the prior-period momentum, positioning commercial lending for modest year-over-year growth with controlled risk-weighted assets.
Consumer Lending
Consumer lending, at $101.61 million last quarter, remains a complementary growth vector with a focus on prime credit quality and targeted products. The quarter’s EPS estimate of $0.29 assumes steady fee generation and limited delinquency drift; any deterioration in consumer credit metrics would likely be manageable given portfolio composition and underwriting standards. The segment’s profitability should benefit from selective repricing and retention strategies, though spread expansion is likely narrower than in the commercial book. Cross-sell initiatives targeting household deposits and payments could bolster noninterest income, offsetting any mild compression from promotional deposit pricing in the retail channel. On balance, consumer contributes to scale and revenue diversification while keeping capital consumption measured.
Treasury and Corporate Other
Treasury and corporate other activities contributed $38.54 million last quarter and serve as stabilizers for net interest income and liquidity management. Given the current-quarter revenue estimate of $525.04 million and EBIT estimate of $242.27 million, treasury’s role in optimizing cash, securities yields, and hedging remains important for preserving margin resilience. The earnings cadence here often reflects securities portfolio repositioning and interest rate risk hedges; a benign rate backdrop with a gradual path toward easing would tend to support net interest margin stability. Operating expense control in corporate functions can also underpin the EBIT lift implied by the 24.07% year-over-year estimate, helping translate incremental spread gains into EPS.
Factors Most Impacting the Stock This Quarter
The key stock drivers are likely to be reported net interest margin trajectory, deposit mix trends, and credit costs. An outcome aligning with revenue of $525.04 million and EPS near $0.29 should be interpreted through the lens of asset quality disclosures—namely nonperforming asset movements, criticized loan balances, and provisioning. If credit normalization remains orderly and deposit costs show signs of leveling, investors may reward the stock with multiple stability as the EBIT estimate implies healthy operating leverage. Conversely, a surprise uptick in charge-offs or outsized reserve builds in commercial real estate would reduce confidence in the sustainability of the low-to-mid 30.00% net profit margin implied by recent results and would weigh on the near-term EPS path.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent institutional commentary into January 22, 2026, the prevailing tone leans constructive, with a majority of opinions cautiously bullish relative to valuation and improving credit-cost visibility. The bullish cohort emphasizes stabilization in deposit costs, manageable commercial real estate exposure, and the potential for modest net interest margin improvement as competition for funding eases. Commentary also highlights the supportive backdrop embedded in the quarter’s estimates—revenue of $525.04 million, EBIT of $242.27 million, and EPS of $0.29—arguing that execution on costs and steady asset quality can sustain mid-30.00% net profit margin dynamics.
Supportive views from well-followed banks and brokers center on three planks: first, that credit provisioning appears adequately reserved against known hotspots; second, that revenue growth above 10.00% year over year indicates healthy core earnings power; and third, that the cost base offers levers for incremental efficiency gains. Against that framework, the majority expect an in-line to modest beat setup provided fee income holds and funding costs do not re-accelerate late in the quarter. The minority, more cautious voices cite lingering uncertainty in office-related collateral values and the risk of stickier-than-expected high-cost deposits, which could cap near-term EPS upside.
Overall, the balance of commentary is that the setup into January 29, 2026 is moderately favorable: management’s operating discipline, revenue growth near 12.19% year over year, and implied operating leverage offer a credible path to an EPS outcome around $0.29 with scope for a slight positive surprise if credit costs remain benign.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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